The initial CFP rankings are on the way and the Miami Hurricanes are in line to be the No. 1 team in the first week of the committee voting. That first ranking is always revealing because it's going to set the tone for what we'll see over the next six weeks. If there's one thing we know about the committee, they are consistent for a while until they completely decide to change the rules on the fly.
There are teams up and down the polls that intrigue me. Some will be a little higher in the rankings than we expected, and a few will drop significantly. Each week will be a surprise, and here are the teams that I'll be watching:
AP Rank: 1st
Coaches Rank: 1st
CFP Projection: 1st
I think the biggest threat to Miami holding down the top spot is Georgia, and as long as the Hurricanes keep winning, they should hold off the Bulldogs. There will be some questions about the schedule, but a win over Notre Dame will end all that. Miami has also won six games by 13 points or more, so the Hurricanes have taken care of business.
AP Rank: 6th
Coaches Rank: 3rd
CFP Projection: 7th
Indiana is a team that has me a little stumped. The best win, in terms of rankings, is probably Northwestern. Five of the Hoosiers' past six games have been decided by less than a touchdown and two went to overtime. Winning is the most important thing, but the CFP is going to dock them a bit for the friendly schedule and the questionable eye test.
AP Rank: 11th
Coaches Rank: 10th
CFP Projection: 12th
The Buckeyes are a test of the standards that the CFP committee established a few years ago — teams without their starting quarterbacks have less value, and that explains the projection. Ohio State is a flawed team that is even more flawed without Julian Sayin's ability to get Jeremiah Smith the ball. The Buckeyes' backup quarterback platoon can improve, but unless they can win out, it won't matter.
AP Rank: 14th
Coaches Rank: 14th
CFP Projection: 18th
The CFP may claim not to exercise the Hereditary Rule system, but we know better. Wake Forest might be very good, and the Demon Deacons are proving themselves each week. But it's still Wake Forest, and the stigma that comes with being Wake Forest is going to result in some trepidation when it comes to giving the Demon Deacons a ranking they deserve.
AP Rank: 16th
Coaches Rank: 16th
CFP Projection: 15th
This team is one that has me a little baffled. My original projection for the Volunteers was 18th, but then I have to concede that the committee, much like the polls, are going to be SEC slanted until results force them to do a course correction. As it stands, I moved the Vols up to 15th because it's a good spot for a wait-and-see team. If the Vols can knock off Kentucky, they could very well move into the top 10. But a loss in Week 10 and I could easily see them out of the ranking altogether.
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