Miami took a gut-punch loss at No. 14 Virginia, but it did not knock the Hurricanes back onto the wrong side of NCAA tournament projections. In fact, Miami is in a promising position, especially with some big opportunities still left on the schedule.
Despite loss to Virginia, Miami should still be in NCAA tournament
ESPN's latest Bubble Watch update still has Miami in the "should be in" tier, which it defines as teams with generally 75% consensus at-large odds or better. Selection Sunday is March 15.
"The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play with three resume-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State and Virginia Tech, but they missed the chance to add another on Saturday.... With most projections calling for the ACC to have eight bids, the Canes remain in good shape to snag one."Neil Paine
Miami had Virginia on the ropes early, then let it slip away on a three-shot foul with 3.6 seconds left. Chance Mallory hit all three free throws to finish it after Malik Reneau's layup tied the game with 7 seconds to play. The Hurricanes fell to 21-6 overall and 10-4 in the ACC.
Miami is a lock, even if 'should be in' is an accurate category
The Hurricanes may have missed the chance to add a boost Saturday to the projections, but with Miami's at-large chances still in the mid-80% range, it seems like Miami will be a lock if they don't choke down the stretch.
While they might not be considered a lock in the conventional projection sense, Miami will absolutely go to the Big Dance this year. ESPN also pegged the ACC for roughly eight bids, which helps explain why Miami is still sitting in a comfortable tier even after the loss.
In the official NCAA NET rankings through games Feb. 22, Miami sits at No. 35 with a 3-4 record in Quadrant 1, 6-2 in Quadrant 2, 2-0 in Quadrant 3 and 10-0 in Quadrant 4.
The Hurricanes go to Florida State on Tuesday night, then close the regular season with Boston College at home (Feb. 28), a trip to SMU (March 4) and Louisville in Coral Gables (March 7).