Miami ascends to top of ESPN College Football Playoff Projection

Miami ascended to the top of the ESPN College Football Playoff projections after their win over Florida on Saturday night.
Sep 20, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) and his teammates walk toward the line of scrimmage against the Florida Gators during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Sep 20, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) and his teammates walk toward the line of scrimmage against the Florida Gators during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

After a thorough 26-7 domination of Florida on Saturday night, Miami ascended to the top of "the College Football Playoff top 12 after Week 4" from ESPN posted late on Saturday night. Miami is second in the Associated Press Top 25 and sixth in the USA Today Coaches Poll for week 5.

Miami is off until October 4, when they play at Florida State. The Seminoles are eighth in both week five polls. Florida State is at Virginia on Friday before hosting Miami. ESPN College Gameday could be headed to Tallahassee for Miami at Florida State.

Miami at Florida State should be the only week six game between top 10 teams, unless the Seminoles are upset at Virginia on Friday. Virginia is 3-1, with their only loss at North Carolina State in week two. Miami does not play Virginia during the 2025 regular season.

The Hurricanes are one of a few teams with multiple wins over ranked opponents in 2025. Miami began the season with a 27-24 win over Notre Dame, who was ranked sixth in the AP Top 25 and defeated number 18 South Florida in week three.

Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn't come easy against the Gators, but Miami's defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes' best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC's top playoff contender -- at least until it's decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State. -Heather Dinich ESPN

Miami won multiple ways against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida. The Hurricanes survived the Fighting Irish after losing a 21-7 lead after three quarters. Miami outgained Notre Dame 277-177 through three quarters. Notre Dame outgained Miami 137-47 and outscored the Hurricanes 17-6 in the fourth quarter.

Miami had a game-winning 10 play, 46 yard drive in the fourth quarter in 2:17 that culminated with a 47-yard Carter Davis field goal to put Miami in front with 1:04 remaining. Notre Dame lost a yard on its final four plays as Miami sealed the game on defnse.

Miami gained 576 yards and held South Florida to 332 in a 49-12 week three win. South Florida began the 2025 season with wins over ranked Boise State and Florida. Miami scored touchdowns on its first two drives before South Florida answered with field goals. The Hurricanes then scored 21 consecutive points to put the game away.

The Florida defense kept the Gators in the game on Saturday night. Miami led 13-7 with under five minutes left in the game before two late TDs sealed the outcome. Florida finished with 141 total yards. Eighth came on the only TD drive Florida had against Miami.

Miami was about as dominant as possible defensively on Saturday night other than the TD drive they allowed. Florida had eight drives limited to one set of downs versus Miami. Miami is in the top 30 nationally in points allowed, total defense and rushing and passing yards allowed per game.

Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented. Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN's FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.-Dinich

Florida State is the last remaining ranked team on the Miami schedule. Louisville is 3-0 and could be ranked when Miami hosts the Cardinals on October 17. North Carolina State, Syracuse, Virginia and Pittsburgh are the only other teams on the Miami schedule with one 2025 loss.