Miami is a 4.5-point favorite over Florida State on Saturday per the FanDuel Sportsbook. Laying the points with Miami is -106 and taking the number with Florida State is -114. Miami is -178 on the money line and Florida State is +150.
Miami has been as favored by as many as 6.0 points over Florida State in the past week, with the low as the current 6.5. The Hurricanes were favored by as many as 7.5 points over Florida State when the number was initially released in June.
The over/under for Miami at Florida State is 53.5. Betting on the over is -115 and the under is -105. The over/under for Miami at Florida State was as high as 55.5 points this week, with the low the current 53.5 total.
Florida State and Miami are both 3-1 versus the point spread in 2024. Miami failed to cover as a 53.5-point favorite in a 45-3 win over Bethune-Cookman in week two. Florida State failed to cover as a seven-point favorite in a 46-38 double overtime loss at Virginia in week four.
Two of the four Miami games have exceeded the over in 2025. Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 with an over/under of 50.5 and South Florida 49-12 with a total of 56.0. The Miami win over Bethune-Cookman had an over/under of 64.5. Miami beat Florida 26-7 with an over/under of 51.0. All four FSU games have gone over in 2025.
Miami at Florida State predictions
Despite all four FSU games in 2025 exceeding the over, the safest bet feels like it should be the under. When Florida State and Miami played during the dominant era, outcomes trended as low-scoring, hard-hitting games that were controlled by the defense.
The second safest bet seems like Miami on the money line. The spread feels tight. Miami has to be able to limit Florida State on the ground. Florida State is second nationally, averaging 336.25 rushing yards per game. Miami needs to be able to utilize its advantage on the line of scrimmage to wear Florida State down.