Miami at Louisville: final odds and predictions

Miami is a 4.5-point favorite at Louisville in the late FanDuel odds ahead of the noon kickoff on Saturday. The game is between to two 15 teams in the ESPN Football Power Index. Miami is 10th in the FPI and Louisville is 15th. Miami is given a 55.9 percent chance to beat Louisville by the FPI.

The Hurricanes are 3-3 versus the spread this season. Miami covered in three of its first four 2024 games. Miami did not come close to covering the double-digit spreads in a 38-34 win over Virginia Tech and 39-38 at California two weeks ago. The Hurricanes had a bye last week.

Louisville covered the spread in its first three 2024 games and had a push three weeks ago at Notre Dame before failing to cover in their last two games. Louisville was plus seven at Notre Dame in a 31-24 loss in the only other game this season the Cardinals were an underdog.

Miami is minus 196 on the money line on Saturday and Louisville is plus 162. The over/under for Miami at Louisville is 59.5 The total is the second biggest one for a Miami game this season and the most involving Louisville. The over/under in the 50-15 Miami win at South Florida was 65, resulting in a push.

Miami at South Florida was the only Hurricanes game that did not eclipse the over in 2024. Four of the six Louisville games went over with the other two going under. Louisville beat Georgia Tech 31-19 with a total of 56. Louisville won 24-20 at Virginia last week with the total set at 54.5.

Predictions

The 4.5-point spread is tight. Miami should win, but asking them to cover that number might be too much. The better play on Miami is probably the moneyline. Despite the high number expect the game to go over. Miami has not played well defensively in its last two games but leads the nation in total yards and scoring.