Miami is a 10.5-point favorite over SMU on Saturday per the FanDuel Sportsbook. The Hurricanes are -390 on the money line. SMU is +310 on the money line. The over/under for Miami at SMU is 50.5. Betting the over is -115. Putting money on the under is -105.
Miami was as high as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday. The line has come down and remained between 10.5 and 11 for the last few days. The last time Miami was this big of a road favorite was 12.5 points over Syracuse in the 2024 regular season finale. Miami was favored by 3.5 in its first 2025 road game at Florida State.
Miami beat Florida State 28-22 to cover in its only 2025 road game. The Hurricanes are 5-2 against the spread in 2025. Miami 2-2 versus the spread as a double-digit favorite in 2025. Miami beat Bethune-Cookman 45-3 as a 53.5-point favorite and lost 24-21 to Louisville, favored by 10.
The only games Miami covered as a double-digit favorite in 2025 were a 49-12 win over South Florida as a 17.5-point favorite and the 42-7 victory over Stanford last week, favored by 28.5. Miami also covered against Florida State and as an 8.5-point favorite with a 26-7 win over Florida.
SMU is 2-5 against the spread in 2025. Miami is the first team to be a double-digit favorite over SMU in 2025 and be the favorite in Dallas over the Mustangs. SMU lost 35-24 to TCU as a 7.0-point underdog and won 35-24 at Clemson, getting 3.5 points.
Three Miami games have gone over in 2025 and two SMU games have exceeded the total. The 50.5 point over/under ties the third-lowest for a Miami game in 2025, with the season opener against Notre Dame. SMU has its lowest over/under during the 2025 season against Miami.
Miami at SMU Predictions
Miami needed a touchdown in the final minute to cover the point spread against Stanford and for the game to go over. The Hurricanes were stagnant offensively for most of the first half against Stanford until tying it on a Mark Fletcher Jr. TD run with 1:15 left in the first half to tie the game at seven.
SMU has the second-worst pass defense nationally, but expect Miami to try to assert itself on the ground offensively. Miami should get a far more competitive game from SMU than it did at home last week versus Stanford.
Expect Miami to win outright, but SMU should cover and the game trends to go under. Miami at SMU will kick off at Noon Eastern Daylight Time on ESPN. The forecast for game time on Saturday in Dallas is 62 degrees and light rain. That should help Miami wanting to establish the run.