Miami College Football metric projections and resume
Miami lost control of its own fate for a College Football Playoff berth with a 42-38 loss at Syracuse on Saturday. A win over Syracuse would have earned Miami a berth in the ACC Championship game and likely secured a CFP berth despite what the outcome would have been versus SMU in Charlotte on Saturday.
Now Miami has to await the final CFP brackets and rankings that will be released on Sunday. Miami will have an idea where they currently stand when the penultimate 2024 CFP rankings are released on Tuesday night. The consensus opinion seems to be the final CFP at-large berth will ultimately be decided between Alabama and Miami.
The top six CFP at-large berths appeared to be nearly locked in. The Big 10 and SEC championship game participants will all likely be in the CFP depsite the outcomes on Saturday. Oregon plays Penn State in Indianapolis for the Big 10 Championship and Georgia and Texas play in Atlanta in the SEC Championship.
Miami fell to 14th in the Associated Press Top 25 and US LBM Coaches poll released on Sunday. Alabama is 11th in both polls. South Carolina is 13th in the AP Top 25 and 12th in the Coaches Poll. Alabama finished 9-3 after a 28-14 win at Auburn on Saturday. South Carolina defeated then number 12 Clemson 17-13 to also finish 9-3.
Team | Record | FPI | % to make CFP | SOR | SOS | GC | AVPWP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 9-3 | 4 | 30.1 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 11 |
Miami | 10-2 | 11 | 23.2 | 14 | 55 | 19 | 21 |
Mississippi | 9-3 | 8 | 2.9 | 18 | 31 | 2 | 5 |
South Carolina | 9-3 | 14 | 21.5 | 11 | 15 | 9 | 18 |
Mississippi and South Carolina are also teams to watch when the rankings are released on Tuesday night. The ESPN Football Power Index has the percentage to earn a CFP berth tight between Alabama, Miami and South Carolina. Alabama and Mississippi both beat Alabama this season.
Alabama has the advantage in FPI ranking, their chance to make the CFP and Strength of Record over Miami, Mississippi and South Carolina. Miami has the best record. Mississippi leads in Game Contol and Average Win Game Probability. South Carolina has the best Strength of Record among the FPI resume metrics.
Alabama tops Miami, Mississippi and Alabama as the fourth most efficient team per the FPI. Miami is first nationally in offensive efficiency. CFP Committee Chairman Warde Manuel has frequently mentioned the Miami offense after previous releases of the CFP rankings.
Oh, and Cam Ward, plus the nation-leading offense in points per game, yards per game, yards per play and third-down conversions. (Felt those were obvious points.) https://t.co/ZeqnvbVJah
— Tim Reynolds (@ByTimReynolds) December 2, 2024
Mississippi is fifth in defensive efficiency, South Carolina sixth and Miami 63rd. Alabama is 27th in special teams efficiency to best Miami, Mississippi and South Carolina. The CFP committee is unlikely to consider special teams as much as offense and defense.
The FPI is just one look at the metrics the committee might consider when determining who should make the CFP. The last berth is tight. Alabama, Miami, Mississippi and South Carolina all need SMU to defeat Clemson in the ACC Championship. If Clemson wins, SMU would likely receive an at-large berth over the aforementioned teams.
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