Miami Could Have Easier CFP Path Without Making The ACC Championship Game

Miami could have an easier path to the College Football Playoff without making the ACC Championship Game, according to the ESPN Allstate Playoff Predictor. Miami has five 2025 regular-season games remaining that begin at SMU on Saturday.

Miami currently has a 46.5 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to the ESPN Football Power Index. The ESPN FPI projects Miami with a 31.1 percent chance to win out and 21.4 percent to win the ACC.

Miami began the 2024 season with nine consecutive wins. Losses at Georgia Tech and Syracuse in two of its final three games cost Miami a berth in the ACC Championship Game and CFP spot. Miami likely has to win out to earn a CFP berth.

SMU and Pittsburgh are the only teams with winning records remaining on the Miami regular-season schedule. The Mustangs are 5-3 overall and 3-1 ACC and tied for fourth place in the conference with Duke and Louisville. Pittsburgh is alone in third place at 4-1 in the ACC and is 6-2 overall.

Miami hosts Syracuse (3-5 overall, 1-4 ACC) and North Carolina State (4-4, 1-3) before playing its penultimate 2025 regular season game at Virginia Tech (3-5, 2-2). If Miami wins its next four games, it could set up a critical final game of the regular season at Pittsburgh with the winner potentially earning an ACC Title Game berth.

If Miami wins out in the regular season, but does not earn an ACC Championship Game berth, the Allstate Playoff Predictor projects the Hurricanes with a 97 percent chance to make the CFP, 11 percent for a first-round bye, 70 percent to host the first round and 16 percent to be a first-round visitor.

If Miami wins out but loses in the ACC Championship Game, the Allstate Playoff Predictor projects Miami with a 55 percent chance for a CFP berth, less than a one percent chance to receive a first-round CFP bye, an 18 percent chance to host in the first round and 37 percent chance to play on the road.

A Miami loss at SMU on Saturday and then winning out would give the Hurricanes a 24 percent chance to earn a CFP berth, a five percent chance to host in the first round and a 19 percent chance to be on the road. If Miami does not win, it would not host a first round CFP game.

A loss to Pittsburgh would give Miami less than a one percent chance to make the ACC Title Game. Although the Allstate Playoff Predictor still gives Miami a nearly one in four chance to make the CFP with a loss to SMU, any loss at this point would make it nearly impossible to earn an ACC Title Game berth with seven conference teams having one loss.