Miami has started the 2025 season out on fire with impressive wins over Notre Dame, Bethune Cookman, South Florida and Florida. The ESPN Football Power Index projects Miami with an increased percentage of winning all but one game, after the Hurricanes were on a week five bye.
Miami has a better chance to win every game for the remainder of the 2025 season after week five, per the ESPN FPI projections, except for Virginia Tech, which slightly decreased. Miami had an 87.5 percent chance to win at Virginia Tech on November 22 in projections after week four.
The projection to win at Virginia Tech is now 86.5 percent. The game at Virginia Tech ties Pittsburgh at 86.5 percent for the highest projected chance for Miami to win on the road in 2025. Miami plays its final two games of the 2025 season at Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.
Miami has its first 2025 road game on Saturday at Florida State. The ESPN FPI projects Miami with a 65.3 percent chance to win at Florida State. The projection for Miami to win at Florida State increased from 60.2 percent before the Seminoles lost 46-38 in double overtime at Virginia on Friday night.
Date | Opponent | Record | Chance to Win | Previous Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
10/4 | At Florida State | 3-1 | 65.3 | 60.2 |
10/17 | Louisville | 4-0 | 83.8 | 83.5 |
10/25 | Stanford | 2-3 | 97.0 | 96.2 |
11/1 | At SMU | 2-2 | 74.6 | 71.9 |
11/8 | Syracuse | 3-2 | 94.8 | 89.6 |
11/15 | NC State | 3-2 | 90.1 | 89.0 |
11/22 | At Virginia Tech | 2-3 | 86.5 | 87.5 |
11/29 | At Pittsburgh | 2-2 | 86.5 | 83.5 |
Florida State is the only road game for Miami in the first two months of the 2025 season. Miami will not play outside of Florida until November 1 at SMU. Miami is projected with a 74.6 percent chance to win at SMU, which is up from 71.9 percent after week four.
Louisville could be the biggest game of the 2025 season for Miami. Wins by Miami and Louisville in week six could set up a game between undefeated teams in week eight and put the winner in control of the ACC for the remainder of the 2025 season. Miami is projected with an 83.8 percent chance to beat Louisville.
Miami will have to avoid a letdown against Stanford a week after playing Louisville. The Hurricanes have a 97.8 percent chance to beat the Cardinal per the ESPN FPI. Miami is a 94.8 percent favorite to beat Syracuse, which increased from 89.6 percent after the Orange lost 38-3 to Duke on Saturday.
Miami has a 90.1 percent chance to beat North Carolina State on Senior Day on November 15 before the final two games of the 2025 regular season at Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. Miami has a great opportunity to go undefeated in the regular season. Three of the next four games versus FSU, Louisville and SMU will be challenging.