The 2025 Miami schedule which includes Florida and Notre Dame in non-conference and 2024 college football playoff participant SMU is ranked 36th in the SP+ by Bill Connelly of ESPN. Connelly posted his projected SP+, win total and strength of schedule for the 2024 season.
Connelly noted in his X post that his strength of schedule rating is the projected winning percentage an average top-five team could expect against the specific team's schedule. It was also noted that Oklahoma and Florida would need to be top-five caliber to finish 9-3 per Connelly.
Connellly projects Miami with nine wins and Florida with 6.6 but does not have Notre Dame among the teams with the 40 most difficult schedules in 2025. Florida is listed by Connelly as having the second most difficult strength of schedule in 2025 behind Oklahoma.
Miami begins the season on August 31 at Hard Rock Stadium versus Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are a consensus preseason top-10 team and among the five highest-ranked in several early season projections. Miami hosts Bethune-Cookman on September 6 and South Florida on September 13.
Now that 2025 CFB schedules are officially set, here's the projected top 40 for SP+ strength of schedule.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) March 5, 2025
(Reminder: The SOS rating is the projected win% an average top-5 team could expect against your schedule. OU and Florida will need to be top-5 caliber to go even 9-3.) pic.twitter.com/Lf3sKcgaLD
Florida bookends the two marquee non-conference games in 2025 at Hard Rock Stadium on September 20. Florida State, North Carolina State, Stanford and Syracuse are 2025 Miami opponents with strength of schedules ranking in the top 40 per SP+.
The ESPN Football Power Index graded Miami with the 56th most difficult schedule in 2024. BPI and SP+ are separate metrics measured by ESPN. Miami had the 11th most difficult schedule in the ACC in 2024 per the BPI. Boston College and Clemson are the only ACC teams Miami doesn't play with SOS's ranked in the SP+ top 40.
Strength of schedule will almost assuredly play a factor in determining College Football Playoff berths. Four of the top six teams in BPI's strength of schedule in 2024 earned College Football Playoff berths. Florida and Notre Dame having strong 2025 seasons would help Miami's SOS.