Miami Hurricanes remain low in new ESPN FPI rankings

The Hurricanes are No. 10 in the AP Top 25, but the newest ESPN Football Power Index update slots Miami at No. 17, second in the ACC behind Clemson (No. 16).

ESPN’s FPI is a predictive model, not a poll. It blends prior-year performance, returning production, recruiting, and coaching into unit ratings, then simulates the season 20,000 times to project results. It’s built to forecast game odds and season outcomes more than to mirror human ballots. That framing matters for interpreting why a top-10 AP team like Miami can sit outside the top 15 in FPI.

Miami checks in at No. 17 overall and No. 2 in the ACC, with nine SEC teams, five Big Ten teams, and Notre Dame ahead. Miami will see two of those ahead-of-them teams on the field — Notre Dame and Florida — creating early opportunities to move the model.

ESPN’s late-summer refresh nudged Miami and Clemson down from their June positions (both were inside the top 15 earlier). The ongoing debate over whether FPI leans too heavily toward the SEC/Big Ten will certainly come across the timeline now.

Because FPI evaluates teams on a neutral-field point margin basis, explosiveness without turnovers on offense and a top-tier success-rate defense generally accelerate upward movement once real games begin. (In practice: stack clean September box scores while limiting negative plays, then let strength-of-record catch up as the schedule toughens.)

The computers are cooler on Miami than the voters right now — AP No. 10 vs. FPI No. 17 — but FPI is designed to move quickly once actual results replace priors. The schedule gives Miami direct shots at teams the model rates higher. So, if Miami can cash those in then the predictive view of the FPI will eventually close the gap with the different polls.