Miami is higher in metrics from major sites than their CFP ranking

Miami is higher in the metrics from major sites than their College Football Playoff ranking.
Aug 31, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney (10) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Aug 31, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney (10) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

ESPN, Sagarin Ratings, Sports Reference and TeamRankings, major sports media sites, have Miami higher in their metrics than the Hurricanes' College Football Playoff ranking. Miami is 13th in the week 12 CFP rankings that were released on Tuesday night.

Miami is 11th in the latest ESPN Football Power Index. The Associated Press top 25 poll ranked Miami 13th entering week 13 and the Hurricanes are 14th in the USA Today Coaches poll. Miami has the 17th-best chance to earn a CFP berth at 26.2 percent in the FPI.

Miami is 16th in the ESPN FPI strength of record, 43rd in strength of schedule, 48th in remaining strength of schedule (At Virginia Tech and at Pittsburgh), ninth in game control and fifth in average in-game win probability.

The Hurricanes are 14th in overall efficiency, 30th in offensive efficiency, sixth in defensive efficiency and 83rd in special teams efficiency in the ESPN FPI. ESPN SP+ has Miami 10th overall, 17th in offense, 12th in defense and 20th in special teams.

Jeff Sagarin, who has been publishing his ratings since 1985, has Miami eighth. Sagarin's metrics have been used to help select teams for the NCAA Tournament since 1984. That was the year before the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams.

Every metric measure in the Sagarin ratings has Miami in the top 10. One negative for Miami in the Sagarin Ratings is that the Hurricanes are the only team in his top 10 with a losing record against teams in his top 30. Miami beat Notre Dame (fourth) and lost to SMU (23rd) and Louisville (29th).

Miami matches the Sagarin Ratings in eighth in Sports Reference's simple ratings system. The Hurricanes are 36th in offensive SRS and fourth in defensive SRS. Miami is 30th in the SRS strength of schedule.

Miami is 10th in the TeamRankings predictive rankings. The Hurricanes are 1-0 against teams first through 10th in the predictive rankings, 1-0 versus teams 11 through 20 and 2-2 against teams 20 through 29. Miami has the 23rd SOS from Team Rankings.

In full transparency, several other sites not as well known have Miami lower in their metrics than ESPN, Sagarin, Sports Reference and Team Rankings. A pair of examples are Miami is 22nd in the College Football Nerds ratings and 13th in Sharp College Football.

Miami has to win at Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh in its final two games, or the metrics will not matter. Beating Virginia Tech is not likely to boost Miami in the metrics much. A win at Pittsburgh, 35th in SP+ and 38th in the ESPN FPI, could lift Miami a bit more ahead of the final regular-season CFP rankings on December 2.

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