The Miami Hurricanes are still securely in the CFP top-12 despite falling to No. 7 in the second installment of the rankings. Miami remains a big favorite to make the final bracket, with ESPN's CFP predictor giving the Hurricanes a 97% chance.
But the six-spot drop puts Miami's future standing into question. The Hurricanes are outside the top four, which means they will have to win out and likely need some help to get one of those first-round byes. There's also the question of which teams could keep Miami out of the top four and which teams could potentially jump them.
Here are three thoughts after the most recent CFP rankings:
Miami needs someone to lose if it wants a first-round bye
If the Hurricanes just win their remaining regular-season games and win the final ACC Championship Game, that alone won't be enough to guarantee a top-four seed. At least a couple of the six teams in front of Miami will have to lose. Let's break it down into two reasons:
The SEC champion is a lock for a top-four position
Let's not beat around the bush here. Whether it's Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, or even Kentucky, the winner of the SEC is getting one of the byes. That's a guarantee. Now, depending on how the next few weeks play out, the loser of the SEC Championship Game could also get a bye. That's less certain, but the SEC love is strong within the committee, and the ESPN ties should never be underestimated.
Utah, UCLA, and Notre Dame could win out and end all discussion
Utah and UCLA have some interesting roadblocks remaining to stay undefeated. The Utes should be on upset alert in Week 11 when they head on the road to play Arizona. UCLA has the game against USC remaining on the schedule and a Week 11 date against Illinois that feels like it could be a trap game.
Notre Dame has SMU on Nov. 21, but we've talked about how shaky the Mustangs are on the road, and I wouldn't trust that game to be as competitive as it looks on paper. But if all three of these teams continue winning, the Hurricanes will be out of the mix for that extra week off.
The CFP committee fully embraces Power 3 + the ACC
Remember when the ACC and Big XII used to be on equal footing? Those were the days, but that's long, long gone. The Big XII has SIX teams in the rankings. That's the same number of teams that the Big Ten has in the rankings!
One conference decided to get serious about football on a top-to-bottom level, while the ACC is still banking on one or two teams to carry the conference. In 2026, that job has fallen onto Miami and Wake Forest.
The Big XII will be playing meaningful games across the board in the final three weeks, while the ACC has the Hurricanes, Demon Deacons, and 15 dwarfs. Their commitment to football is paying off, and it's earned the respect of the committee.
Ohio State and LSU have no business in the CFP rankings
The committee just can't quit these power conference, blue-blood teams, even though both have suffered blowout losses and aren't playing good football right now. By keeping these teams in the rankings, the committee is establishing the narrative that some programs are too big to fail. The committee claims to look at what's happening now, but if that were true, they'd see that neither the Buckeyes nor the Tigers are worthy of being ranked.
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