Miami needs to avoid turnovers versus Duke defense adept at forcing them
Duke enters its game with Miami plus 10 in turnover margin in the last two games. Duke somehow lost 28-27 to SMU in overtime last week despite a plus-six turnover margin. Miami has to avoid turnovers versus Duke to remain in control of the game. Duke is fourth nationally with a plus-12 turnover margin.
Miami is 32nd in turnover margin. Part of the reason A plus three turnover margin versus FCS program Florida A&M helps boost Miami to 32nd. Miami is 56th nationally versus FBS opponents in 2024 with a plus-three turnover margin. Miami falls to 66th nationally with a minus-one turnover margin versus Power Conference opponents.
After ranking first nationally with seven fumbles lost in 2023, Cam Ward has done a better job of taking care of the ball in 2024. Ward has lost only one fumble in 2024 and has only the 56th most interceptions thrown with five. Ward is 33rd nationally with interceptions thrown on 1.8 percent of his pass attempts.
Duke is first nationally with 10 fumble recoveries, second with 14 forced fumbles and 30th with nine interceptions. The Blue Devils have five fumble recoveries and five interceptions in the past two games. SMU entered the game at Duke on Saturday plus seven in turnover margin in 2024.
In their preview of Duke at Miami, Max Chadwick and Dalton Wasserman of Pro Football Focus examined turnover margin as a key for the game. Ward has a 2.6 percent career-low turnover-worthy play rate. That number is 3.3 percent versus Power Conference opponents which is closer to Ward's career average.
Duke leads Power Conference teams nationally with 19 turnovers gained. Miami had a zero turnover margin versus California which is second nationally among Power Conference teams with 18 forced turnovers. California had a key pick-six though on an ill-advised throw by Ward across the middle of the field.
Duke is first nationally with 21 turnover-worthy plays. Opposing quarterbacks have a 50.6 passing grade from PFF and have nine turnover-worthy plays versus Duke. Expect a lot of mixed coverages and from the Manny Diaz-led defense frequent blitzing. PFF noted that Duke is 12th nationally in blitz percentage.
6-2. 825. ABC. Duke at Miami . November 2, 2024. 8-0. 2306. Miami -20.5. Noon ET
Miami is 91st nationally and 11th in the ACC with a minus 0.50 turnover margin in conference games. Duke is fourth nationally with a plus 2.25 turnover margin in conference games. Duke won its only two games with a minus turnover margin in 2024. Virginia Tech was the only game Miami had a minus turnover margin in 2024.
Miami had a plus turnover margin in each of its first four games in 2024 and has been even in each of the last three games. Duke has had at least a plus-three turnover margin in three games this season. Diaz emphasizes turnovers as Miami fans will remember with the turnover chain. Avoiding turnovers is essential for Miami versus Duke.