The Miami loss at Georgia Tech on Saturday puts the Hurricanes firmly on the College Football Playoff bubble entering their final two games of the 2024 regular season. The final four or five at-large CFP berths are very tight. Miami is slightly behind in the metrics compared to other potential bubble teams.
Other teams have better resumes than Miami after week 11. Miami is 11th in the ESPN Football Power Index and 11th in the Team Rankings and Projections Summary. SMU currently leads the ACC and would get the automatic berth. As the highest-ranked Group of Five team, Boise State would also receive a CFP berth.
The FPI currently projects Miami with a 51,8 percent chance to win the ACC. That is the best percentage among the Power Four conferences. If Miami beats Wake Forest and Syracuse in their last two regular-season games, the Hurricanes will earn a berth in the ACC Championship Game.
If Miami wins the ACC Championship they will earn an automatic berth in the CFP. Miami has to be focused at home versus Wake Forest on November 23 and at Syracuse in the regular season finale on November 30. As Mario Cristobal has said all season, Miami has to be focused on being 1-0 each week.
Seed | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
1 | Oregon | 10-0 |
2 | Texas | 8-1 |
3 | BYU | 9-0 |
4 | SMU | 8-1 |
5 | Ohio State | 8-1 |
6 | Penn State | 8-1 |
7 | Tennessee | 8-1 |
8 | Indiana | 10-0 |
9 | Notre Dame | 8-1 |
10 | Alabama | 7-2 |
11 | Georgia | 7-2 |
12 | Boise State | 8-1 |
Miami has the seventh best strength of record per the FPI. The Hurricanes have the 39th toughest schedule and the 54th most difficult remaining schedule. Closing the season strong is critical for Miami. With the Miami loss at Georgia Tech, SMU moves up to fourth in the CFP rankings prediction.
Oregon remains first in the CFP rankings predictions. Texas moves up to second after Georgia lost 28-10 at Mississippi. BYU defeated SMU in September moving the Cougars up to third as the leader in the Big XII. The losses by Georgia and Miami significantly shuffled the rankings.
The loss to Georgia Tech could be significant for Miami in reaching the CFP. Georgia finishes the regular season versus Georgia Tech. Performance versus common opponents will be evaluated by the CFP committee. SEC games over the final three weeks of the regular season will be critical for the CFP.
ACC power rankings, Week 11 😵💫
— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) November 11, 2024
1. Miami 🤦♀️
2. SMU 😎
3. Louisville 😬
4. Clemson 🤞🏻
5. Georgia Tech ☀️🏆
6. Duke 💪🏻
7. UNC ⬆️
8. Virginia 😃
9. Pitt 😖
10. Cal 🥇
11. BC 🏃♂️
12. Cuse 😞
13. Virginia Tech 😔
14. Wake 😶
15. NC State 😳
16. Stanford 🫤
17. FSU 🤯
Georgia hosts Tennessee on Saturday night. A Georgia loss will likely eliminate them from CFP consideration with three defeats this season. Tennessee is 8-1 with its one loss to Arkansas. The biggest impactful game in the final week of the SEC regular season is Texas at Texas A&M.
With two losses Texas A&M would likely be eliminated from the CFP. The only impactful Big 10 game for the remainder of the 2024 regular season barring an upset is Indiana at Ohio State on November 16. All of the above-mentioned games could impact a potential Miami at-large CFP berth.
The recent loss of Pittsburgh to Virginia has put Miami in control of its own path to the ACC Championship Game. If Miami wins against Wake Forest, Syracuse, and likely SMU in the ACC Championship Game, they will secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. This is what Miami should prioritize moving forward.