ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid published a list of 16 players with a chance to go No. 1 overall in 2027, assigning each a percentage. Darian Mensah came in at 10%, tied for the fifth-highest mark on the board.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning and Oregon quarterback Dante Moore led the field at 15%. South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart came in at 13% and Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons logged in at 12%. Mensah shares the 10% tier with Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr.
ESPN gives Darian Mensah 10% chance of going No. 1 in 2027 NFL Draft
At Duke last season, Mensah threw for 3,973 yards with 34 touchdowns and six interceptions. He led the ACC in yards and touchdowns, and projects to build on that in 2026 at Miami.
Ball security is the main question as Mensah fumbled eight times last season and lost five of them. Add the six interceptions and that is 11 turnovers surrendered across the year.
Part of why Mensah is rated this highly has to do with Miami's recent QB track record
Ward arrived from Washington State in 2024, threw for 4,313 yards and 39 touchdowns, and went No. 1 overall to Tennessee. Carson Beck arrived from Georgia in 2025 with a repaired elbow, completed 72.4% of his passes for 3,813 yards, and went in the third round to Arizona.
Mensah is the third straight high-profile transfer quarterback to take over the offense, and Shannon Dawson is still calling the plays.
ESPN's 16 candidates for the 2027 No. 1 overall pick
- QB Arch Manning, Texas: 15%
- QB Dante Moore, Oregon: 15%
- Edge Dylan Stewart, South Carolina: 13%
- Edge Colin Simmons, Texas: 12%
- QB Darian Mensah, Miami: 10%
- QB CJ Carr, Notre Dame: 10%
- QB Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State: 8%
- QB LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina: 5%
- QB Jayden Maiava, USC: 2%
- QB Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss: 2%
- QB Sam Leavitt, LSU: 2%
- QB Julian Sayin, Ohio State: 2%
- OT Jordan Seaton, LSU: 1%
- OT Trevor Goosby, Texas: 1%
- WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State: 1%
- CB Leonard Moore, Notre Dame: 1%
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