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Miami ranked in playoff expectation tier by ESPN of all 136 FBS teams

In their ranking of all 136 Football Bowl Subdivision teams by ESPN, Miami is in tier two with playoff expectations.
ByAlan Rubenstein|
Sep 7, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal runs on the field before the game against the Florida A&M Rattlers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Sep 7, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal runs on the field before the game against the Florida A&M Rattlers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Anything less than making the College Football Playoff in 2025 would be a disappointment. David Hale of ESPN ranked 136 Football Bowl Subdivision teams ahead of the 2025 season in 20 tiers. Miami is in tier two titled playoff expectations with five other teams.

Ohio State and Texas are tier 1A, titled "Tier 1a: A great matchup for Week 1 and/or the championship game." Georgia, Oregon and Penn State are Tier 1b: The rest of the best. Miami is in the next tier with Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Michigan and Notre Dame.

Miami is the only one of the top 10 teams in the tier to never make the College Football Playoff. The other nine teams all reached the CFB at least once during the four-team era. Everyone but Alabama, LSU and Michigan were in the inaugural 12-team CFP in 2024.

Notre Dame is the only 2025 Miami opponent in the top "two" tiers. Florida is in "Tier 3: Someone in the SEC has to lose games, too (six teams)." SMU is the next highest ranked 2025 Miami opponent in "Tier 4: Last year's playoff surprises (four teams)."

"Then there's Miami, a team with all the talent to make a title run but enough self-inflicted wounds over the years to wonder if it'll be the likes of Stanford or Virginia Tech that trip up the Canes.

(Note: It'll be Syracuse. We all know it'll be Syracuse.)"
David Hale, ESPN

Louisville is in "Tier 5: So hot right now (four teams)." The aforementioned Syracuse is in "Tier 8: Regression to the mean (the bad kind) (five teams)." Syracuse was 10-3 in 2024, which matched Miami. The Syracuse win over Miami kept the Hurricanes out of the ACC Championship game and the CFP.

Florida State, North Carolina State and Virginia Tech are in "Tier 9: Regression to the mean (the good kind) (four teams)." Hale called out Florida State for reaching for a transfer QB for the second straight season. "FSU has rolled the dice on a QB with a checkered past, and Tommy Castellanos seems intent ontaunting the aforementioned football god."

Pittsburgh is in "Tier 11: Potential sleepers (seven teams)." Miami finishes the 2025 regular season at Pittsburgh on November 29. The game is reminiscent of 2017 when 10-0 Miami lost at Pittsburgh in the final game of the regular season. A lot is likely to be on the line for Miami at Pittsburgh in 2025.

South Florida is in '"Tier 15: Group of 6 with upside (15 teams)." Stanford is in Tier 16a: At least you tried (three teams). Hale wrote Stanford has only nine wins versus Power Five opponents since 2021 but five of those victories were against teams ranked in the top 25 when they played them or finished the season there.

Hale acknowledged projecting where the teams will finish is a difficult task. Florida State and Virginia Tech fell far below 2024 projections. SMU significantly exceeded 2024 expectations, as Hale tiered them as a surprise 2024 CFP team. Miami needs to win the games they are favored to earn a CFP berth.

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