With "Selection Sunday" less than a week away. The chances of Miami being held out of the CFP playoffs seem greater by the hour. It doesn't matter to the committee that the Hurricanes have a head-to-head win over Notre Dame, because why should the games on the field actually matter?
Unfortunately, even the odds makers at FanDuel seem to agree that the Hurricanes are in a prime position to be jobbed out of a position in the 12-team bracket that they've earned.
Mario Cristobal’s post-game interview.
— Grant Speaks (@GrantSpeaks1) November 29, 2025
Mario says Miami is a College Football Playoff team, and that head-to-head results are always the number one criteria in football. pic.twitter.com/FTPEJcdgXY
What are the Hurricanes' odds of making the CFP?
According to FanDuel, Miami has a +650 of making the 12-team bracket. And the Hurricanes are -1200 not to make the bracket. These odds aren't good, but they will be adjusted as the championship games play out Saturday. The key games for Miami fans to monitor are the SEC, ACC and Big XII games.
With BYU and Alabama expected to be a spot or two ahead of Miami, the odds should improve with wins from Texas Tech and Georgia respectively. That might be all the Hurricanes need. But these things are never that easy and that's where the ACC game comes into play.
If Duke wins the ACC, everything is on the table
Duke is 7-5 and if the ACC had some good sense, the Blue Devils wouldn't be in Saturday's game, but they are, and the conference leadership knows better than to upset a school that has the largest college basketball brand in the world and would leave for the Big Ten tomorrow if it wanted.
However, say Manny Diaz, leads the Blue Devils to a win over Virginia, and then what happens? The CFP's five-highest ranked conference champions receive auto-bids. The SEC, Big XII and Big Ten are accounted for. One would assume Tulane or North Texas would be the fourth. Would an 8-5 Duke team be placed ahead of, say, James Madison? Maybe. Maybe not.
Would the CFP just leave the ACC out altogether if Duke wins? It's possible.The committee is not afraid to kick that dog whenever they want to send a message. I don't see a situation where an 8-5 Duke team gets in the bracket. Putting a 5-loss team that lost to Illinois and UConn over Miami seems preposterous.
But so does ignroring head-to-head results.