Miami will conclude its 2024 season less than two hours from where it began in Gainesville. Iowa State and Miami will play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl on Saturday with the winner earning their 11th victory this season. The point spread listed by FanDuel has moved more in favor of Miami less than 24 hours before kickoff.
After being a 3.5-point favorite over Iowa State earlier this week, the Hurricanes are now minus 4.5 per the FanDuel odds. The money line has also moved. Iowa State is plus 162 after opening at plus 138 and Miami is minus 196 after opening at minus 166. The Pop-Tarts Bowl over/under moved from 55.5 to 57.5.
Iowa State is 7-6 versus the point spread in 2024 and Miami is 6-5-1. Iowa State won 20-19 at Iowa as a 2.5-point underdog in the only game it was not favored this season. Both Iowa State and Miami were 3-3 away from home in 2024. The Cyclones and Hurricanes are both playing their first 2024 neutral site game.
Seven Iowa State game this season have eclipsed the over and six have gone under. Eight Miami games have gone over, three under and one pushed. Miami pushed versus South Florida and went under versus Florida State, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest.
The average over/under this year in an Iowa State game was 49.08. Surprisingly, the average Miami O/U was 59.375. Miami is first nationally averaging 44.2 points per game and Iowa State is 50th averaging 30.2. Iowa State is 31st nationally allowing 21.5 PPG and Miami is 60th allowing 23.9.
The biggest question entering the Pop-Tarts Bow is will Iowa State be able to keep up with Miami offensively. Wide receiver Isaiah Horton who transferred to Alabama is the only key player on Miami who has opted out of the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Iowa State does not have any opt-outs per multiple reports.
Prediction
Miami has a huge advantage on offense with Cam Ward and the rest of their key offensive players playing in the Pop-Tarts Bowl other than Horton. Iowa State has a pair of 1,000-yard wide receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jalen Noel. Despite Higgins and Noel, Iowa State averages less than 100 yards and 10 points fewer than Miami.
Iowa State and Miami enter the Pop-Tarts Bowl off disappointing losses that would have likely ended with them being in the College Football Playoff. If Miami is focused it should win and cover the point spread. The over is also a good bet. The Pop-Tarts Bowl has a similar feel to Miami beating West Virginia in Orlando in Brad Kaaya's last game in 2016.