Miami is a 3.5-point favorite against Mississippi in the Fiesta Bowl, College Football Playoff Semifinal on Thursday night. Miami is favored for the first time since a 38-7 win at Pittsburgh as a 6.5-point favorite in the final game of the regular season. Miami is -164 and Mississippi is +138 on the money line.
Mississippi is an underdog for the second consecutive game. Mississippi beat Georgia 39-34 as a 6.5-point underdog in the Sugar Bowl, College Football Playoff quarterfinal on New Year's Day. The Fiesta Bowl line has fluctuated between 2.5 and 3.5 points since it opened after Mississippi beat Georgia.
Miami and Mississippi are both 9-5 against the point-spread in 2025. The CFP games at Texas A&M and against Ohio State and the season opener versus Notre Dame are the only games Miami has been an underdog during the 2025 season.
Miami won all three games outright as an underdog in 2025. Miami is 6-5 against the point spread as a favorite in 2025. The last game Miami did not cover was as a 17-5 point favorite in a 34-17 win in the penultimate game of the regular season at Virginia Tech.
Mississippi against the spread as a 2025 underdog
The Fiesta Bowl is the fourth game during the 2025 season that which Mississippi is an underdog. Mississippi lost 43-35 at Georgia as a 7.0-point underdog and won 34-26 at Oklahoma as a 5.5-point underdog before the win over the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl.
Miami versus Mississippi Over/Under
The over/under for Miami versus Mississippi is 51.5. Nine Miami games have gone under in 2025. Mississippi has split with seven games over and the other seven under in 2025. The last three Miami games have gone under, while Georgia and Mississippi were over.
The 51.5-point total is the fifth highest for a 2025 Miami game. The Fiesta Bowl Over/under is the second lowest for a Mississippi game in 2025. Mississippi won 30-23 at Kentucky with the over/under 50.
Prediction
The game will come down to who controls style and tempo. Miami has to win the game at the line of scrimmage. A low-scoring, ball-control game favors Miami. An uptempo, high-scoring game favors Mississippi. Miami should be able to win the game at the line of scrimmage, cover the spread and take the under.