Miami vs. Notre Dame's November matchup can rewrite the 2026 CFP race

CBS Sports has ranked Miami as the favorite to claim the No. 1 seed in its early projection of the 2026 College Football Playoff. After a deep run that fell short in the 2025 CFP National Championship game, Miami reinforced its offensive arsenal with the recruitment of Darian Mensah, the highest-ranked quarterback in the transfer portal, according to The Athletic. Paired with the more experienced and polished game of the returning standout wideout Malachi Toney, the Miami offense is yet again bound to be electric.

The Hurricanes were able to find massive success on the defensive end last season, allowing only 14.8 points per game and earning a fifth-place ranking in 2025. Although Miami is expected to lose its top defensive players to the NFL draft, this trend is projected to continue into the 2026 football season. In fact, outgoing pass rusher Rueben Bain stated that the defensive line "might be better" without him.

One thing that stands out about this projection, though, is the fact that Notre Dame is projected to be the No. 2 seed in the 2026 CFP. The 'Canes and the Fighting Irish have had some history of tension between them, with their matchup being dubbed "Catholics vs. Convicts." However, given the projected seeding, the significance of the scheduled matchup on Nov. 7 is expected to have much higher stakes than the usual Catholics vs. Convicts faceoff.

Why the Nov. 7 Matchup Matters for the CFP Picture

Miami and Notre Dame being projected as the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds immediately makes the Nov. 7 meeting one of the most significant regular-season games of 2026. Considering both programs are successful in their respective paths toward the CFP, a single loss would not be enough to eliminate consideration of competing in the tournament.

However, it will play a heavy role in tournament seeding and committee perception. The significance of these factors was demonstrated last season, when a highly successful, nationally ranked Notre Dame team was snubbed from the CFP as Miami held the head-to-head advantage after the Hurricanes defeated the Irish in the season opener.

A Notre Dame loss wouldn't knock them out of the CFP, but it would likely cost them a top-four seed and the chance at a first-round bye. For Miami, beating the projected No. 2 team gives them a strong anchor win that the committee always values in November. It’s not a win-or-go-home situation, but it’s a game that will meaningfully shape where both teams land in December.

What's at stake for Miami?

This is the proving ground for Miami. The team has all the pieces together, but that doesn't guarantee that the 'Canes will be treated as the clear No. 1 seed by the committee.

With a relatively easier schedule in 2026, Notre Dame is one of the toughest opponents they will face. The Fighting Irish features a powerful defense that allowed only 17 points per game and consistently held opposing quarterbacks below 56% completion. Splitting this defense apart will be a true testament to the highly-anticipated offensive strength that Miami is believed to possess.

On the other hand, a loss could prompt the committee to immediately question whether they're the best team or simply just a talented one. Although a complete elimination from consideration is unlikely, Miami may lose control over its postseason path. Miami gains nothing from a weaker schedule in this scenario; if anything, it could easily be flipped and used against its playoff hopes.