Miami waits in post week 14 12-team College Football Playoff rankings predictions
Miami had a straightforward path to the College Football Playoff at Syracuse on Saturday. A win by Miami at Syracuse earned the Hurricanes an ACC Championship Game berth and would have probably put them in the CFP. The 42-38 loss puts Miami on the bubble for a CFP berth.
What stung the most about the loss at Syracuse was that Miami had a 21-0 lead in the second quarter. The inconsistency of the Miami defense will likely play a role in determining their final ranking in the CFP projections before the bracket is set on Sunday, after the conference championship weekend.
Miami needs SMU to defeat Clemson in the ACC Championship game. Clemson would not be considered for an at-large berth in the CFP. SMU enters the ACC Championship game with an 11-1 record. Clemson would steal a CFP berth with a win over SMU as the Mustangs are likely in the CFP win or lose.
Miami is likely with three-loss SEC teams Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina for the final CFP berths. The four teams playing for the Big 10 and SEC Championships are likely in the CFP. The Big XII winner is the only team likely to get a CFB bid. The ACC Championship game takes on the most importance.
It’s so on at @CanesFootball. Your move @Lane_Kiffin pic.twitter.com/VCmLNHVVUV
— Dennis Dodd (@dennisdoddcbs) December 2, 2024
Seed | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
1 | Oregon | 12-0 |
2 | Texas | 11-1 |
3 | SMU | 11-1 |
4 | Boise State | 11-1 |
5 | Penn State | 11-1 |
6 | Notre Dame | 11-1 |
7 | Georgia | 10-2 |
8 | Ohio State | 10-2 |
9 | Indiana | 11-1 |
10 | Tennessee | 10-2 |
11 | Miami | 10-2 |
12 | Arizona State | 10-2 |
There are multiple factors the CFP Committee will consider for the final at-large berth, Six of the seven at-large berths seem secure. It is highly unlikely Georgia would be penalized for a loss to Texas in the SEC Championship game. Georgia should be in, win or lose on Saturday in Atlanta.
The Oregon-Penn State loser is also firmly in the CFP with Indiana and Ohio State from the Big 10. Notre Dame and Tennessee should be locks despite the outcomes of Championship Weekend. How the CFP committee views the differences between Alabama, Miami, Mississippi and South Carolina will likely determine the last CFP berth.
The final at-large berth completely hinges on SMU winning the ACC Championship in their first year in the league. Alabama is fourth in the ESPN Football Power Index, Mississippi eighth, Miami 11th and South Carolina 14th.
Miami is 14th in FPI strength of record, 19th in game control and 21st in win game probability, but only has the 55th-best strength of schedule. Alabama and South Carolina are higher ranked in all those metrics. Mississippi is higher ranked than Miami in all of the above metrics except SOR.
The final rankings released on Tuesday before the actual bracket is broadcast will be very telling of who is ahead to receive the final at-large berth for the inaugural 12-team CFP. It will be a nervous few minutes on the broadcast Tuesday night for Miami before they learn their potential fate.