Miami will exploit inconsistent Florida State defense not as good as their numbers
Florida State had its best defensive performance of 2024 allowing 180 total yards and held Duke to the second-lowest points they allowed this season in a 23-16 loss. In their two games before Duke, Florida State allowed 458 in a 41-16 loss to SMU and 500 in a 29-13 defeat to Clemson.
Florida State allowed over 300 yards in their first three games in 2024 to Georgia Tech, Boston College and Memphis and 410 in its only win, 14-9 over California. Clemson and SMU have similar offenses to Miami. Clemson is seventh nationally averaging 42.0 points per game and SMU is 11th at 40.7 PPG.
The Tigers are seventh nationally averaging 490.4 total yards per game and SMU is 30th averaging 439.9 YPG. Miami eclipses the Clemson and SMU offenses. Miami is second nationally averaging 48.3 PPG and first at 577.3 YPG. Expect Miami to put up similar numbers to what Clemson and SMU did very Florida State.
SMU had 254 yards passing and three TDs and ran 51 times for 204 yards and another two scores. The Mustangs added an 82-yard interception return for a TD in the fourth quarter. A week later, Cade Klubnik threw for 265 yards and two TDs and Clemson ran 40 times for 265 yards. Clemson often stalled offensively in the red zone.
It is going to be an epic battle next week with a Miami defense that gives up all the points against a Florida State offense that hasn't scored 20 points in any of its last eight games on American soil.
— Tim Reynolds (@ByTimReynolds) October 19, 2024
Florida State has defended the pass better than the run. The Seminoles are 40th nationally, allowing 198.0 passing YPG. Florida State's inability to stop the run has likely kept their passing numbers down. FSU is 75th allowing 7.3 yards per attempt, 70th allowing a 60.8 completion percentage and 86th allowing a 136.04 passer rating.
Florida State is 103rd allowing 172.00 rushing YPG, 81st with opponents averaging 4.25 yards per carry, but 38th allowing only eight TDs on the ground. The Seminoles are 48th allowing nine passing TDs. Boston College joined Clemson and SMU over 200 yards rushing with 263 versus Florida State.
Miami is first nationally averaging 388.4 passing yards per game and with 25 TDs, sixth averaging 10.2 YPA, fourth with a 183.04 passer rating and seventh completing 69.9 percent of their passes. Miami has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this season with three over 400 and one topping 500.
Florida State played exceptionally well versus Duke defensively. The performances by Florida State versus Clemson and SMU don't bode well for the Seminoles. Every sign points towards the Miami offense continuing to roll versus Florida State on Saturday. If the defense contributes, Miami should have its first blowout in four games.