In her article updating talks between the ACC and SEC, Nicole Auerbach of NBC Sports opined, "Table the expansion talk. The College Football Playoff should stay at 12 teams." Current talks center around the College Football Playoff expanding from 12 to 16 teams.
The Big 10 prefers a 4-4-2-2-1 model for the CFP, while the SEC wants a 5+11. The 4-4-2-2-1 model awards four berths in the CFP to the Big 10 and SEC, two each in the ACC and Big XII and one to the best Group of Five team. The 5+11 model is the five best conference champions and 11 at-large teams.
Auerbach reported multiple sources told NBC Sports the Big XII will not support a 5+11 model with the SEC playing eight conference games. The Big 10 and Big XII currently play nine conference games. The ACC also plays eight conference games.
The imbalanced schedules, in theory, are more difficult for the Big 10 and Big XII. Strength of Schedule among ACC and SEC teams would in part be dependent on who they play in non-conference. Miami plays Florida and Notre Dame as two of its four 2025 non-conference games.
"The SEC’s interest in the 5+11 model aligns well with what’s best for both the ACC and Big 12, two leagues that did not want to accept a model that essentially defined them as second-tier conferences."Nicole Auerbach, NBC Sports
The SEC would likely present their argument that the eight conference games they play are more challenging than the nine the Big 10 and Big XII play. Miami likely would not have scheduled Florida and Notre Dame as non-conference games in the same season with a nine-game ACC schedule.
CFP executive director Rich Clark told reporters in Asheville, North Carolina, everything is on the table and none of the CFP proposals have emerged as a leader. Auerbach reported the SEC wants the 5+11 model. The expectation from the SEC is likely that they can qualify more than four teams in a 16-team model.
The ACC would have qualified three teams for the CFP in 2024 in a 5+11 model. All of the teams that would have qualified for the 5+11 model in 2024 were ranked in the top 16. In the final 2024 CFP rankings, the ACC would have had three teams, the Big 10 four, the Big XII one, six from the SEC, Boise State from the Group of Five and Notre Dame.
Alabama, Miami, Mississippi and South Carolina would have been the four teams who were left out of the 12-team 2024 CFP who would have qualified with 16 berths. Twentieth-ranked Illinois is the only other Big 10 team that was in the final CFP rankings. The ACC and SEC would both have benefitted from the 5+11 in 2024.