Stan Becton of NCAA.Com projected "The top fear of every College Football Playoff contender" in a post on Thursday. Becton projects the top fear for Miami should be a loss. Three of the four teams remaining on the Miami schedule have winning records and the fourth, Wake Forest is 4-4.
Detractors will point out that Miami does not play a ranked opponent in 2024. Although Louisville is not ranked in the polls, the Cardinals are 18th in the ESPN Football Power Index. Florida is the second highest-ranked team in the FPI defeated by Miami in 2024. The Gators are 18th.
Some projections including Becton speculate that Miami needs to go undefeated all the way through the ACC Championship Game to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. The ESPN Allstate CFP Predictor and FPI project otherwise. Miami has an 88.8 percent chance to make the CFP per the FPI which is the highest nationally.
The Allstate Playoff Predictor projects Miami with a 98 percent chance to make the CFP if they lose their regular season finale at Syracuse and miss the ACC Championship Game. In that scenario, Miami would finish 11-1 and have a 71 percent chance to host a first-round CFP game and a 28 percent chance to be a first-round visitor.
"Miami (Fla.) | ACC | 8-0Stan Becton NCAA.Com
Fear: A loss
Yes, Miami's biggest fear should be losing a game. It doesn't matter if it's in the regular season or the ACC title game, a loss could risk Miami missing the playoffs or being on the bubble. Why is that? Well, the Hurricanes haven't beaten a ranked opponent, have the 47th-best strength of schedule and only the 53rd-best remaining strength of schedule. Its resume can't risk any loss."
The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Miami a 99 percent chance to make the CFP and 71 percent chance to host if they lost at Georgia Tech, win at Syracuse and miss the ACC Title Game. If Miami wins out and loses in the ACC Title Game, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Miami better than a 99 percent chance to make the CFP.
An undefeated regular season and loss in the ACC Championship Game would give Miami a 95 percent chance to host a first-round CFP game per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The ESPN projections from the FPI and Allstate Playoff Predictor run counter to the claims by Becton that Miami can't risk any loss.
If they have one regular season loss and a defeat in the ACC Championship Game Miami would still have better than a 50 percent chance to make the CFP per the Playoff Predictor. Miami doesn't want to put itself in a position with two losses of leaving the decision up to the committee. With one loss Miami will likely receive a CFP berth.