The new College Football Playoff seeding eliminates byes for conference champions and will likely make it more difficult for the ACC to make deep runs into future postseasons. A straight seeding model was adopted by the College Football Playoff administrators on Thursday.
The top four teams in the College Football Rankings will receive a bye in 2025 and going forward, regardless of whether they are a conference champion or not. That significantly favors the Big 10, Notre Dame and the SEC. The top eight teams in the final 2024 CFP rankings were from the Big 10, Notre Dame and SEC.
Boise State, who was ninth in the final 2024 CFP, was the highest-ranked team not in the Big 10, Notre Dame or SEC and from the Group of Five. SMU finished 10th but was seeded 11th in the CFP with Arizona State moving up as the fourth highest ranked conference champion.
Arizona State earned a bye into the quarterfinals as the fourth seed, where they lost to Texas. In a straight seeding model, Texas would have been the third seed. Texas could not be higher than the fifth seed because Georgia, who beat them in the SEC Championship game, earned the slot from the conference and was the second seed.
In a straight seeding model, SMU would have been the 10th seed and played at seventh seed Tennessee. In the previous model, SMU was the 11th seed and lost to sixth-seeded Penn State. The Nittany Lions would have been fourth in the straight seeding model and earned a first-round bye.
Clemson, who won the ACC but was the lowest among the five conference champions, was the 12th seed and would not have been affected by the straight seeding model. Instead of playing at Texas as they did in the 2024 model, Clemson would have played at fifth seed Notre Dame in the straight seeding model.
Alabama, which was ranked 11th in the final CFP rankings, would still have been left out of the CFP, as how teams qualify will not change. Miami finished 13th and would still have missed the CFP in the straight seeding format. The ACC Champion could be affected in the future by potentially missing a bye or a home game.
The 2017 season, when Miami was 10-2 after losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship game, is the other year the Hurricanes would have been affected in the CFP era. Miami would have been the 10th seed in 2017 in either a straight seeding model or the 2024 format.
The top four teams in 2017 were Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama. Ohio State was fifth. In the 2024 model, Ohio State would have received a bye and Alabama would have hosted Central Florida, who was ranked 12th and would have received a bid as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.
Miami would have played at seventh-seed Auburn in its first-round game. Eight of the top nine teams in the 2017 CFP rankings are now in the Big 10 or SEC. Clemson was the top seed. Behind Miami were Washington and UCF. It is likely going to take an undefeated regular season for an ACC team to break into the top four.
Miami was close and arguably should have finished undefeated entering the 2024 ACC Championship Game. With Florida expected to be vastly improved in 2025 and Miami opening the season versus Notre Dame, going undefeated will be far more difficult in 2025.
Miami plays Notre Dame and/or an SEC team in non-conference every year through 2030. The schedule will make it more difficult for Miami to go undefeated but could help them in the eyes of the CFP committee. Expect the Big 10, Notre Dame and SEC teams to continue to be viewed more favorably than the ACC, Big XII and Group of Five.