For the first time this season, the Miami Hurricanes aren't double-digit favorites. Heck, they aren't favorites at all. Instead, the No. 1 team in the country will be 4.5-point underdogs heading into a road game against No. 4 Notre Dame.
The game is scheduled for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff from South Bend. There are no weather worries in the forecast for next weekend, although it might be a little chilly at kickoff, with temperatures hovering in the mid-40s.
This line originally opened at Notre Dame -3.5 and has shifted a bit. When the preseason odds were released on this game, the Irish were a 7.5-point favorites. As things stand, Miami indeed is the underdog by 4.5 points, which should serve as extra motivation to post a win.
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Miami hasn't won a football game in South Bend in a long time
The Hurricanes have won the past two games against the Irish, including a 27-24 thriller in Week 1 of the 2025 season, but that game was at Hard Rock Stadium. When the contests have been held in South Bend, things haven't been so rosy. The bad news is that Miami hasn't won at Notre Dame since 1984, but these games haven't been out of reach.
1988: No. 4 Notre Dame 31, No. 1 Miami 30
1990: No. 6 Notre Dame 29, No. 2 Miami 20
2016: Notre Dame 30, Miami 27
In some cases, like 1988, Notre Dame got every gift from the referees imaginable, and in others it came down to a play or two. If this year's game comes down to a couple of plays, I like Miami's chances because they have the playmakers that can get it done.
And the Hurricanes are battle tested this season. A couple of weeks ago, they were pushed to the brink by Florida State before winning in double overtime, and against North Carolina in Week 9, it took 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to close the door on the Tar Heels.
"I think it's, why are you playing close games?" Mario Cristobal said in his postgame press conference. "Are you playing teams that are playing well and doing some things that it's really important you fix and remedy? Or are you not playing as well as you should be? There are certain aspects where we're playing really well, but we've got to keep getting better, and certain areas we need to improve."
While it would be nice for Miami to be peaking right about now, the Hurricanes are figuring out how to make it happen in some pretty challenging conditions against teams that have nothing to lose. Notre Dame, however, does have something to lose and, with a loss to BYU already on the resume, a second one puts the Irish in a shaky spot.
Miami is going to try to keep it all business this week because there's plenty of football left once the clock reaches zero on Saturday night. The Hurricanes have to close strong in the ACC to assure their spot in the conference championship game. This week is very important, but beating Notre Dame is just another next to the ultimate goal.
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