Point spread falling quickly for Cotton Bowl CFP quarterfinal Miami versus Ohio State

The point spread for Miami versus Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl College Football Quarterfinal is falling quickly.
Dec 31, 2025; Arlington, TX, USA; The Miami Hurricanes mascot dances before the 2025 Cotton Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
Dec 31, 2025; Arlington, TX, USA; The Miami Hurricanes mascot dances before the 2025 Cotton Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

After Miami began the day as a 9.5-point underdog to Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl College Football Playoff quarterfinal, the line is down to 7.5 points per the Fanduel Sportsbook odds about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Miami is +270 on the money line and Ohio State is -335. The money line dropped from Miami +280 and Ohio State -250. Ohio State was -400 on the money line as recently as December 20. Miami has been between +250 and +310 on the money line since December 20.

The over/under is 40.5 on Wednesday. Betting the over is -108 and the under is -112. The over/under has fluctuated between 40.5 and 42.5, which was as recently as Monday. Money is clearly being bet on Miami and the under.

Miami and Ohio State feature two of the best defenses in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Hurricanes allow 13.8 points per game, fourth nationally in FBS and Ohio State opponents average 8.8. Ohio State is first, permitting 217.5 YPG and Miami is 10th at 289.0.

Miami and Ohio State offenses

Miami is 26th, posting 31.2 PPG versus FBS opponents and Ohio State is 21st at 32.0 PPG. The Hurricanes are 42nd, averaging 402.6 total YPG and Ohio State is 28th at 411.3. Miami is the second-best defense Ohio State has played in 2025.

Indiana is second nationally, allowing 10.8 PPG and fourth permitting 257.2 YPG. The Hoosiers are also the best offense the Buckeyes played in 2025. Indiana averages 41.9 PPG and is seventh, posting 472.8 YPG.

Indiana beat Ohio State 13-0 in the Big 10 Championship Game on December 6. The Hoosiers and Buckeyes both earned College Football Playoff first-round byes. Miami won 10-3 at Texas A&M in the first round of the CFP. The game is trending towards a low-scoring game and money reflects that.

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