College football Metrics Guru projects wins Miami needs for CFP berth
Miami is in excellent company with the projection they need 10 wins to make the college football playoffs this season in a projection from metrics guru Kelley Ford posted on Tuesday night. Several ACC tams and Miami opponents are included among the teams who are projected to need 10 wins for a CFP berth.
Miami opponents who are also projected to need 10 wins to make the CFP are California, Florida State and Louisville. Boston College, Clemson, Stanford and Virginia are other ACC programs projected to need 10 wins to make the CFP. Georgia Tech is the only ACC program with a projection of nine wins for a CFP berth.
Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, SMU, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest are ACC programs projected to need 11 wins in 2024 to make the CFP. Miami plays NC State, Syracuse and Virginia Tech among those programs. Miami's three non-conference FBS opponents vary greatly.
Florida is the only program on the list by Ford who he projects to make the CFP if they reach 11 wins. Ford projects Ball State to need 12 wins for a CFP berth and South Florida with 11 wins. Consensus projections on Miami are that the Hurricanes have a very favorable schedule during the 2024 season.
How many regular season wins does your team need to be in conversation for a CFP at-large bid?
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) July 3, 2024
*Order within the tier matters. Georgia’s 9 wins would be more impressive than Vanderbilt’s, which would be more impressive than Arkansas’, etc. pic.twitter.com/wuXepya3oG
The consensus projections for Miami in 2024 are 10-2 with losses to Florida State and at Louisville. Miami is 24th in the ESPN Football Power Index. The FPI projects Miami with 8.2 wins and 4.0 losses. Florida State and Louisville are the only teams ahead of Miami in the FPI on the Hurricanes' 2024 schedule.
Schedule Difficulty rankings for all 134 FBS teams based on my Preseason v1 power ratings pic.twitter.com/MU4DsOi9AC
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) June 19, 2024
The FPI projects Miami with the 51st toughest schedule nationally. Ford projected how many wins every Football Bowl Subdivision program would have as in his words, the number 12 power-rated team nationally. The number 12 power-rated team nationally would project to have 9.6 wins versus Miami's schedule per Ford's metrics.
ESPN analyst Greg McElroy projects Miami football win total. dark. Next. ESPN analyst Greg McElroy projects Miami football win total
Miami needs to win the games they are projected to win. Controlling their destiny will be the key for Miami in 2024. Miami has too often lost games they are favored, particularly with Mario Cristobal as head coach in the last two seasons. If Miami can win the game they are favored in 2024 they should challenge for an ACC Championship game berth and the CFP.