Mario Cristobal expects South Florida to be best team Miami has played
Speaking to the media on Monday, Miami head coach Mario Cristobal said South Florida will be the most difficult opponent the Hurricanes have faced this season. Miami has outscored Florida, Florida A&M and Ball State 159-26 in its first three games. Miami is third nationally in margin of victory this season.
Florida is 1-2, FAMU 2-1, Ball State 1-1 and South Florida 2-1. South Florida's only loss was a 42-16 defeat at Alabama. Alabama had to score three touchdowns in the final five minutes to pull away from South Florida. The Bulls have the third toughest strength of schedule nationally per the ESPN Football Power Index.
South Florida has the 50th strength of record in 2024 per the FPI. Strength of Record is a team's record compared to a projection of how top 25 teams would perform with their schedule. Most teams would not have beaten Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Miami has the 21st SOR and 95th best strength of schedule in the FPI.
The FPI gives Miami an 85.2 percent chance to win at South Florida. Miami is favored by 16.5 over South Florida per FanDuel. Miami is 2-1 versus the point spread this season. Miami covered versus Florida and Ball State, but not Florida A&M.
South Florida is led by dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown. Brown is third nationally among QBs averaging 84.67 rushing yards per game. Brown has thrown for under 200 yards in every game this season. Miami will likely stack the box and try and make South Florida beat them passing.
Kelley Joiner is also averaging 73.33 rushing yards per game for South Florida. Sean Atkins is the top receiver for South Florida with 13 receptions for 164 yards. Brown has only three TD passes compared to 11 for Cam Ward. USF is 23rd averaging 37.7 points per game and 46th averaging 424.7 yards per game.
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Defensively, South Florida is 78th allowing 350.0 yards per game and 79th giving up 23.0 points per game. South Florida should test the Miami defense. Miami should be able to wear down South Florida's defense and move the ball well later in the game as Alabama did in their 42-16 win.