Miami ESPN Football Power Index projections versus 2024 non-conference opponents

Miami opens the 2024 season 23rd in the ESPN Football Power Index. That is slightly below their ranking of 19th in the Associated Press Top 25 and USA Today Coaches Poll. Other national rankings have Miami higher than 19th. The FPI projects the record for each team in 2024.

Miami is projected to have 8.2 wins and 4.0 losses in the FPI. The FPI gives Miami a 1.1 percent chance to win every game, a 90.4 percent chance for six wins, a 9.9 percent chance to win the ACC, an 18.2 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, 1.9 percent chance to make the National Title game and 0.6 percent to win.

Miami opens the season at Florida. The Gators are 20th in the FPI. Florida is projected to have a record of 5.9 wins and 6.1 losses against what is projected as the toughest schedule in the country. In November, the Gators will play five of the top 13 teams in the national polls in a brutal five-week stretch.

Despite being the point spread favorite versus Florida, Miami is projected with a 42.7 percent chance to win in Gainesville from the FPI. Miami at Florida will be one of the marque week one games on August 31. Florida is one of the few games on the 2024 Miami schedule the Hurricanes will not be favored in the FPI.

Miami hosts FCS Florida A&M in the home opener on September 7. As an FCS program, FAMU is not ranked in the FPI. FAMU is 30th in the preseason FCS rankings and first in the preseason poll for historically black colleges and universities. The Rattlers finished first in the 2023 HBCU rankings. Miami has a 99 percent chance to beat FAMU.

Miami hosts Ball State in week three. Ball State is 123rd in the preseason FPI. The FPI projects Ball State to have 4.9 wins and 7.2 losses. Ball State has a 36.2 percent chance to win six games and qualify for a bowl game and a 3.7 percent chance to win the Mid-American Conference. Miami had a 94 percent chance to beat Ball State.

South Florida is 88th in the FPI. The FPI projects South Florida to have 5.9 wins and 6.2 losses in 2024. The Bulls are given a 56.8 percent chance to win six games, a 5.4 percent chance to win the American Athletic Conference and a 1.7 percent chance to make the CFP. Miami is projected with an 80.3 percent chance to win at USF.

Surprisingly, the FPI only favors Miami in five of their eight ACC games. Those will be examined separately, focusing on ACC opponents and the FPI. The consensus expectations for Miami are greater than the FPI projections for the 2024 season. Nine or 10 wins is the consensus for Miami in 2024.