Miami falls one spot in ESPN FPI after win over FAMU

After a 56-9 win over Football Championship Subdivision opponent Florida A&M on Saturday, Miami fell one spot to 12th nationally in the ESPN Football Power Index. Miami is now second in the ACC after Louisville moved up two spots to 11th to pass the Hurricanes in the FPI rankings.

Louisville beat Jacksonville State 49-14. Jacksonville State being a Football Bowl Subdivision program likely helped Louisville in the metrics and allowed them to pass Miami. Clemson is the new projected favorite in the ACC, despite being below Miami and Louisville in the FPI. The Tigers are 14th nationally in the FPI.

The FPI projects Clemson first with a 26.7 chance to win the ACC after the Tigers' 66-20 win over Appalachian State on Saturday night at home. Clemson had a significant jump after being the third favorite to win the ACC at 12.3 percent in the post week one FPI rankings.

Louisville is second with a 23.7 percent chance to win the ACC and Miami is third at 20.7 percent. Miami is projected with the best chance among ACC teams to make the College Football Playoff at 40.7 percent. Louisville has the second-best odds among ACC teams to make the CFP at 36.3 percent and Clemson is third at 31.7 percent.

Miami is favored in every remaining game this season except at Louisville. The Hurricanes have a 43.2 percent chance to beat the Cardinals. The FPI projects Miami to finish with a record of 9.7 wins and 2.7 losses. Louisville is projected at 9.1-3.3 and Clemson at 9.0-3.4. Miami is at Louisville on October 19.

Miami has the 55th toughest 2024 strength of schedule and the 53rd most difficult remaining schedule per the FPI resume. The Hurricanes are fourth in the FPI Game Control metric and 18th nationally in the average win probability rank. Miami is projected with a 97.9 percent chance to beat Ball State on Saturday afternoon.