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The favorite in the Miami at Florida game depends on how its measured

Consensus bookmakers project Miami as the favorite, while metrics favor Florida when the Hurricanes and Gators play on Saturday in Gainesville.

By Alan Rubenstein

Aug 24, 2019; Orlando, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back DeeJay Dallas (13) breaks a tackle against the Florida Gators during the second half at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 24, 2019; Orlando, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back DeeJay Dallas (13) breaks a tackle against the Florida Gators during the second half at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
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The Miami football team is a consensus 2.5-point favorite on Saturday at Florida. The ESPN Football Power Index projects Florida with a 57.5 percent chance of beating Miami. Florida and Miami enter Saturday's game with high expectations. Miami is projected to have its best season since 2017.

Florida enters the 2024 season ranked 20th in the FPI and Miami is 23rd. With a gauntlet schedule, the FPI projects Florida with 6.0 wins and 6.1 losses. Florida is projected with an 83.3 percent chance to win six games, a 0.6 percent chance to win the ACC and an 8.7 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

If Florida did shock college football and make the playoff the FPI doesn't expect them to last long. Florida has a 0.7 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff Championship game and a 0.3 percent chance to win the title. Florida could probably make the CFP with eight wins in 2024.

Miami is projected to have 8.1 wins and 4.1 losses by the FPI. The FPI projects Miami with an 89.6 percent chance to win six games and qualify for a bowl game. The Hurricanes have a 10.9 percent chance to win the ACC, a 17.6 percent chance to earn a CFP berth, a 1.6 chance at the title game and 0.4 percent to win the title.

Florida enters Saturday's game needing a win with five games in November against the top 13 teams in the preseason poll. The Gators need to accumulate as many wins as they can entering November to set a foundation of getting to six wins and qualifying for a bowl game. Miami's 2024 aspirations are much higher.

Florida returns 14 starters, signed the sixth-best transfer class and its 2024 class is ranked 13th nationally. Miami signed the fourth-best 2024 class and added the 10th-best transfer class. Although Florida signed the higher-ranked transfer class, Miami has more top-end transfer talent.

Quarterback Cam Ward, running back Damien Martinez, wide receiver Sam Brown and center Zach Carpenter are all key starters for Miami on offense in 2024. Miami rebuilt nearly their entire defensive line through the transfer portal. Half of Miami's edge rusher rotation and their top three defensive tackles are transfers.

Defensive tackle Joey Slackman and wide receivers Elijah Badger and Chimere Dike are key transfers to watch for Florida. Dike transferred from Wisconsin where he previously played with Florida QB Graham Mertz. The transfer portal has helped Florida and Miami upgrade several positions and add experience.

The biggest difference between Florida and Miami entering the 2024 season is their projections in their conferences. Miami is picked to finish third in the ACC behind Clemson and Florida State. Miami hosts Florida State on October 26, but does not play Clemson in the regular season.

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Florida is picked 12th in the SEC. With their November schedule coming off of a 5-7 season it will be difficult for Florida to be a contender in the SEC. The winner on Saturday will take a lot of pressure off of their head coach. Saturday's loser will have their trajectory under their current head coach overstated.

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