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Where Miami football ranks versus other Florida FBS teams in ESPN FPI

The Miami football team is one of three in the top 25 from Florida in the recently released ESPN Football Power Index.

By Alan Rubenstein

Nov 11, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher Jr (22) runs the ball against the Florida State Seminoles during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 11, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher Jr (22) runs the ball against the Florida State Seminoles during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports / Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
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The Miami football team ranks 23rd nationally in the 2024 ESPN Football Power Index. Miami is third among Florida programs. Florida State is first in the FPI among Sunshine State teams at 11. Florida is second at 20th, followed by Central Florida at 32nd, Florida Atlantic at 83rd, South Florida at 88th and Florida International at 132nd.

The FPI projects Florida State with an 8.8-3.6 record, Florida with a record of 5.9-6.1, Miami at 8.2-4.0, UCF 7.4-4.7, FAU 7.4-4.8, South Florida 5.9-6.2 and FIU 4.5-7.5. Miami will play Florida, FSU and USF this season. The 2024 Miami schedule is an anomaly with games versus three of the other six teams in 2024.

Florida State is given a 2.3 percent chance to win out in 2024, 93.2 percent to win six games, 26.2 percent to win the ACC, 35.9 percent to reach the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, 6.1 percent to reach the championship game and 2.5 percent to win the title.

Because of its gauntlet schedule Florida has significantly lower percentages to reach the common goals this season, but is ahead of Miami in the FPI. Florida has a 0.0 percent chance to win out, 58.2 percent chance to win six games, 0.7 percent to win the SEC, 8.3 percent to reach CFP, 0.7 to reach the CFP Championship, 0.3 to win the title.

The FPI projects Miami with a 1.1 percent chance to win out, 90.4 percent to win six games, 9.9 percent to win the ACC, 18.2 percent to make the CFP, 1.9 to reach the CFP title game and 0.6 percent to win the championship. At Louisville on October 19 and versus Florida State on October 23 are the pivotal games for Miami in 2024.

Central Florida is entering its second season as a power conference program in 2024. The Knights are projected with a 0.4 percent chance to win out, an 81.9 percent chance to win six games, 7.0 percent to win the Big XII, 9.6 percent to reach the CFP, 0.6 percent to reach the title game and 0.2 to win the championship.

South Florida has a 0.0 chance to win out, make the CFP title game and therefore win the championship. The FPI projects USF with a 56.8 percent chance to win six games, 5.4 percent to win the American Athletic Conference and a 1.7 percent chance to earn a CFP berth.

FAU is projected with a 0.4 percent chance to win out, an 80.4 percent chance to win six games, 7.5 percent to win the AAC, 3.4 percent to make the CFP, 0.1 percent to reach the title game and 0.0 percent chance win the championship. FAU is entering its second season in the ACC.

FIU is projected by far to be the worst FBS team from Florida in 2024. The Panthers are projected with a 0.0 percent chance to win out, make the CFP title game and obviously win the championship. FIU has a 31.0 percent chance to win six games, 2.4 percent to win Conference USA, and 0.1 percent to make the CFP.

Next. Miami football complete ACC schedule released, including Manny Diaz and FSU. Miami football complete ACC schedule released, including Manny Diaz and FSU. dark

The numbers among the Florida teams will be more telling this season with Miami playing Florida and USF in non-conference and the Gators playing the Hurricanes and UCF. Florida State as always plays Florida and Miami. The in-state matchups will provide a good indication of the best teams in Florida in 2024.

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