The Miami Hurricanes fell to SMU 26-20 in overtime on Saturday and may have seen their playoff hopes evaporate. But, when projecting the 12-team CFP field, it might be closer than initially thought. Let's take a look at a projection in which Miami has at least a puncher's chance.
1. Ohio State (undefeated Big Ten champ, beats Indiana in Indy)
Playing it safe here with the Buckeyes. The defending champs win their last four in November (at Purdue, vs UCLA, vs Rutgers, at Michigan), then beat Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. That's a clear No. 1 seed for the team that has held the position since Week 2.
2. Alabama (wins out and wins the SEC)
Alabama is just about as hot as anyone in college football. They don't have a loss in conference play, and if they win out they will be 8-0 in the SEC and make it to the conference championship game. They'll beat Texas A&M in Atlanta who is also projected to win out in this bracket, and the winner is an auto-qualifier and likely top-two seed with a 12-1 record.
3. Indiana (loses Big Ten title to OSU, stays high)
The Hoosiers pull off a 12-0 record in the regular season, but then lose a competitive game against Ohio State. An elite 12-1 non-champ will get the nod over other conference champions who don't have as strong of a resume/record. In this scenario, Indiana would be ranked ahead of Texas A&M with both being 12-1 non-champs.
4. Texas A&M (12-1 SEC runner-up, still top-four)
Winning out to make the SEC Championship will have to go through Missouri and Texas, but the Aggies will be able to pull it off. With that being said, they'll fall to Bama in the SEC title game. An A&M team that enters Atlanta unbeaten (they are 8-0, 5-0 SEC now) and leaves 12-1 with a top resume wouldn't be punished by the committee and lose out on a bye for losing in the conference championship game.
5. Texas Tech (beats BYU twice to win the Big 12)
The Red Raiders must win in the regular-season meeting with BYU and again in the Big 12 Championship. Today, BYU is unbeaten and Cincy is surging; Tech's path to Arlington is to finish top-two in the conference, then beat BYU head-to-head in the title game. This is also assuming that BYU beats Cincy in the regular season.
6. Georgia (11-1 SEC non-champ, above Georgia Tech via head-to-head)
Finishing 11-1 (win Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate vs Georgia Tech) while not reaching the SEC title game is the most likely scenario for UGA. Georgia's remaining slate (Mississippi State, Texas, Charlotte, Georgia Tech) provides good resume building and keeps the Bulldogs in the top-six, even if they don't make the SEC championship game.
7. Georgia Tech (wins ACC, beats Virginia in Charlotte)
The path for GT: Get back to the ACC Championship (they're still at the top despite the recent loss to NC State) and beat current conference leader Virginia. They might need some help with other teams losing in the conference to solidify their spot in the title game. But, if that happens, they will take care of business in Charlotte. This projection still takes into account the UGA vs. GT matchup and even if the Yellow Jackets win the conference, they will still find themselves behind Georgia after they suffer a head-to-head defeat.
8. Oregon (11-1 Big Ten non-champ)
There's an argument for Oregon to be higher but in the current projection they lose to the Big Ten Title Game loser while Georgia would lose to the winner of the SEC. That's what seperates the 11-1 non-conf. championship participators. GT gets a big win and jumps as far as Georgia is in this projection. It just so happens that the Yellow Jackets are sandwiched in between UGA and Oregon. With quality Big Ten wins and only a single loss, Oregon pretty clearly projects to land a home game as a top-8 seed.
9. Ole Miss (SEC at-large)
Ole Miss wins out in their remaining games (The Citadel, Florida, at Mississippi State) and finish 11-1 without the SEC title berth, but with a top-15 profile. For Miami, an Ole Miss loss could bring another team down to their level and make things interesting for the committee. The Hurricanes should be hoping for a Florida/Mississippi State upset victory.
10. Notre Dame (Independent at-large)
This is the saddest reality of the recent loss for Miami. Notre Dame has climbed up the rankings since their first two losses and it looks like they will be ranked ahead of ND when the first CFP rankings come out on Tuesday. If that is the case, ND pretty much controls its own destiny to make the CFP. The Irish will close with wins vs Navy, at Pitt, vs Syracuse and at Stanford to finish 10-2 with a 10-game win streak. That resume is typically seeded in the 8-12 band as an at-large.
11. Vanderbilt (SEC at-large)
Vandy finishes 10-2 with ranked wins (LSU/Missouri) and avoid a bad loss down the stretch. Vandy has already posted multiple ranked wins and is playing a top-25 schedule; that resume might just outweigh Miami if both teams are 10-2. But this is certainly going to be a debate if Miami wins out.
12. Memphis (AAC champion, highest-ranked G5 champ)
Memphis gets in if they wn the AAC (they're 8-1, 4-1 now in a tight race with Navy/North Texas). The highest-ranked conference champion outside the power conferences is guaranteed a berth and Memphis is positioned to be that team if they finish the job.
Where does Miami fit in all of this?
Based on the projection above, if Miami wins out, there are a few teams that the Hurricanes will be compared to for a spot in the CFP: Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Utah and whatever happens at the top of the ACC.
Miami has the head-to-head win over Notre Dame and if they end up with the same record (10-2) then the Hurricanes should be ranked ahead. But will that happen? It doesn't seem likely.
Miami compared to Vanderbilt is an interesting conversation. The Commodores would probably get the nod for being in the SEC and having some nice wins to their resume.
Utah is also the odd team out along with Miami. They deserve a mention because they would also be a 10-2 team if they win out. Miami probably gets slotted ahead, but this would most likely come down to "eye test" for a lot of people.
And finally, the rest of the ACC: Virginia and Louisville. In this projection, UVA suffers a loss in the ACC title game. Their resume is too unimpressive to make the CFP but they would be ahead of Miami since they played an extra game and would be 11-2. Louisville owns the head-to-head and if they win out, they could also be in the ACC title game. It really just depends on tie-breakers. The Hurricanes would need chaos within the conference (and that's also what they needed prior to the loss to SMU).
Final note: Any team not mentioned suffers a loss to one of the teams that are projected to win out. With an additional loss, those programs are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff (ex: USC, Texas, Missouri, etc.)
Verdict: Miami needs the commitee to either honor the head-to-head against ND (or the Irish to lose), have Vandy take a loss, or count on the ACC to implode. They might just need all three to happen. We'll know more when the first CFP rankings are released.