The ACC season starts Saturday with North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia and FSU all playing games in Week Zero. And as Mario Cristobal loves to say, everybody is starting 0-0. The Miami Hurricanes are the betting favorite to win the conference and rightfully so, they've got all the pieces.
But there is some competition for the Hurricanes. SMU and Louisville are receiving a lot of buzz in terms of being the teams closest to Miami and there are a lot of question marks about other perennial contenders like Clemson and FSU.
So let's break this down with four tiers and see how the ACC should shake down in 2026:
The undisputed favorite: Miami
There have been times before when the Hurricanes were favorites to win the ACC, most notably in their first year in the conference back in 2004. But it's never been this decisive. After winning 13 games last season and advancing to the CFP Championship game, the pressure on Miami is as high as it's been in about 25 years. Anything other than the program's first ACC football championship would be disappointing.
The true contenders: SMU, Louisville, N.C. State and Pitt
SMU played in the ACC championship game in 2024 and has Kevin Jennings returning for his third year as the starting quarterback. There's a lot of belief that Rhett Lashlee is not too far away from making SMU a real contender. Louisville has arguably been the most consistent team in the conference since Jeff Brohm arrived, winning nine games each of the past three seasons.
N.C. State has generally had a solid baseline under Dave Doeren and with CJ Bailey at quarterback, the Wolfpack are a prime candidate to level up. Pitt can be such a tease because the Panthers rise when you least expect it and falter when things appear to be going well. There's no question that Mason Heintschel can play, and his ability could get Pitt in the nine-win range.
The middle of the pack: Clemson, FSU, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, Wake Forest and Cal
It's crazy that there are eight teams that are in that range of going anywhere from 8-4 to 5-7. There are some teams like Georgia Tech, Virginia and Virginia Tech that should be on the plus side of the won-loss column and some wild cards like FSU, Duke and a Wake Forest team that won nine games last year with a bad offense.
Cal is the team that really intrigues me. I believe that Tosh Lupoi is going to do some good things out on the North Bay. The Bears will be much better this year than people might expect. Clemson is another wild card. There have been so many people knocking Dabo Swinney that it wouldn't be a surprise if the Tigers turned a few heads early. But can they keep that consistency into October and November?
The bottom of the barrel: UNC, Stanford, Boston College and Syracuse
The Orange are proof how one bad injury can ruin a lot of program momentum. Syracuse won 10 games in 2024 and started last season 3-1 before Steve Angeli got injured, and the losses started piling up. Angeli is back behind center this year and the Orange are the team in this bunch that could surprise. As for UNC, it will be a surprise if Bill Belichick makes it through his second season with the Tar Heels, and it will be a big surprise if the Cardinal or Eagles win more than four games.
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