Miami is a 17.5-point favorite over South Florida on Saturday, per the FanDuel Sportsbook. The line opened at Miami -15.5 and grew to as many as 18.5 before reverting back to the Hurricanes being a 17.5-point favorite over South Florida.
South Florida is +530 on the money line and Miami is -780. The over/under for Saturday is 56.5. Saturday is the first time South Florida is ranked playing Miami and therefore the first time the Bulls and Hurricanes will play each other with both teams in the Top 25.
South Florida has won both of their 2025 games outright as an underdog. Boise State was a 5.5 point favorite in a 34-7 loss in the season opener at South Florida. South Florida was an 18-16 winner at Florida as an 18-point underdog in week two.
Miami covered in the season opener as a 2.5-point underdog in a 27-24 win over Notre Dame. Miami beat Bethune-Cookman 45-3 as a 53.5 point favorite last week. South Florida is playing its first road game of the season. Miami is home for the third of a four-game homestand to start the 2025 season.
Both 2025 South Florida games have gone under the total. The over/under for South Florida versus Boise State was 62.0 and it was 57.5 at Florida. Notre Dame at Miami had an over/under of 50.5. Bethune-Cookman at Miami had an over/under of 64.5.
Miami is 43rd nationally, averaging 36.0 points per game and 40th, allowing 13.5. South Florida is 80th nationally, averaging 26.0 PPG and 26th, allowing 11.5. Miami should dominate the line of scrimmage offensively and defensively. The Miami offensive line has a 56.5 pound weight advantage over the USF defensive line.
South Florida at Miami predictions
Miami should win the game outright. The consensus seems to be South Florida will cover the point spread and that is the safe bet. Miami and South Florida have both played well defensively this season. Take the under with confidence. Miami should still win by two scores, but three is a big task.