The ACC preseason poll got one big thing right and a whole lot of the rest wrong.
Duke opened the year as the ACC favorite after collecting 34 of 49 first-place votes, with Louisville second, North Carolina third, NC State fourth, Virginia fifth, SMU sixth, Clemson seventh and Miami eighth. By the end of the regular season, Duke was exactly where voters expected at 17-1 in ACC play and 29-2 overall.
What the ACC preseason poll got right
The preseason poll nailed Cameron Boozer as the ACC's top freshman. He was the runaway Rookie of the Year and also won ACC Player of the Year.
Everything behind the Blue Devils, though, shifted. Virginia finished second at 15-3, Miami jumped all the way to third at 13-5, and Louisville slid from preseason runner-up to sixth.
The voters clearly understood what Duke had in the preseason. They also were pretty close on North Carolina and Clemson, who were picked third and seventh and ended up fourth and fifth, respectively. Virginia Tech finished exactly where it was picked at 12th. Pitt and Boston College were also more or less what the poll thought they were, landing 15th and 17th after being picked 14th and 18th. But after that, the misses start piling up.
What the ACC preseason poll got wrong
Miami is the most obvious example of a story that the ACC preseason poll didn't see coming. The Canes were picked eighth in October and finished third in March. That is a huge swing for a team that entered the season outside the preseason top tier and now has a double bye in the conference tournament.
Virginia belongs in the same conversation as Miami. The Cavaliers were picked fifth and finished second. Florida State was another team the preseason vote badly missed. The Seminoles were picked 15th and ended up tied for seventh in the standings at 10-8 in ACC play. California and Stanford also beat the early forecast. Cal went from 16th in the preseason poll to ninth in the final standings, while Stanford moved from 17th to 10th.
On the other side, a few teams never came close to their preseason billing. SMU was picked sixth and finished 11th. Syracuse opened ninth and dropped to 14th. Notre Dame went from 10th in the poll to 16th in the standings. Georgia Tech was picked 13th and finished dead last at 2-16 in ACC play.
NC State also has to go in the disappointment column. The Wolfpack were picked fourth and had the preseason Player of the Year in Darrion Williams, but they closed the regular season seventh at 10-8 in the ACC. Louisville underachieved relative to expectations, too, even though the Cardinals still have plenty of opportunities remaining. They were picked second and finished sixth.