1 huge gap between Carson Beck and Fernando Mendoza will decide the national title

Miami will play for the national title for the first time since the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, so it’s hard to have any gripe with Mario Cristobal’s handling of the Transfer Portal last offseason, especially at the quarterback position. 

But the Hurricanes threw $4 million at Carson Beck, coming off an elbow injury and a rough season at Georgia, instead of pushing hard to land Miami native, Fernando Mendoza, who went to the same high school as Cristobal, so this dream season, theoretically, could have been even better. 

Mendoza, of course, went on to become the first player in Indiana history to win the Heisman Trophy and is heading home to play the Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium for the title. Beck is good. Mendoza is better. And one of the biggest differences between the two players is what will decide the game on Monday night. 

That difference is how they handle pressure and how they punish the blitz. Because both of these defenses can get after the quarterback, but result when teams do heat up, these two quarterbacks definitely vary. 

How Carson Beck handles the blitz could cost Miami a national title

Both of these defensive coordinators, Indiana’s Bryant Haines and Miami’s Corey Hetherman, aren’t afraid to dial up a blitz. And they’ve been mostly effective doing it. Miami, with Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, doesn’t need to get quite as exotic to penetrate the backfield, but even when you do get to Mendoza, he’s mostly unfazed. 

The 6-foot-5, 225-pound redshirt junior is comfortable navigating a muddy pocket, and on pressured dropbacks, he’s completing just over 50 percent of his throws. That's because he’s so aggressive, throwing downfield, and has receivers who can hold up their end of the bargain, even when covered. He’s averaging 7.8 yards per attempt and has nine touchdowns to two interceptions. 

Mendoza solidly outperforms Beck, who tends to get jumpy in muddy pockets. 

In the past, Beck’s skiddishness in the pocket was matched only by his aggressiveness, and without an elite arm like Mendoza’s, that led to turnover problems. However, since throwing nine through his first eight starts at Miami, he has thrown just one pick in the last six. The cost of that ball security, though, has been sacks. 

Beck’s time to throw has increased against pressure and against the blitz over Miami’s six-game win-streak, and so has his pressure-to-sack rate. Turnovers lose games, but sacks still kill drives, and that’s what Indiana will be hoping to do: get Miami off schedule, into obvious passing downs, and out of a positive game script. 

Once they do that, they can really up the ante defensively. That’s where Mendoza really separates from Beck, against the blitz. 

When not blitzed, their numbers are strikingly similar. But the best quarterbacks don’t just handle additional rushers; they punish defenses when they bring them. That’s Mendoza. That’s the Heisman Trophy winner. And if Miami isn’t careful, that’ll be the national champion.