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Where the Miami Hurricanes Can Beat the Florida State Seminoles this Saturday

By Shanon Culiner

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I may be getting way ahead of myself with this post, but can you blame me … we’re less than a week away to Miami’s heftiest game, and not to mention, one of the ‘Canes’ biggest rivals, the ‘Noles.

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Yes, we can look at this game as just another future frustrating loss on National Television, but it’s FSU … and well, I don’t like the Seminoles way more than I like the idea of throwing in the towel.

In fact, even if Miami went on to lose every single game from here to eternity, I’d still hope they could find a way to beat Florida State and conceivably, ruin any opportunity at a National Title.

I completely get it, UM doesn’t look good right now! The coaching has been poor and the players for the most part look uninspired and have been making many bad decisions on the field. Whether it’s coaching at fault or players at fault, Hurricanes fans are extremely upset as they have every right to be.

But, one thing is for sure and will not change – on Saturday, October 10, 2015 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida, the Miami Hurricanes will take on their in-state, in-conference rivals, the Florida State Seminoles. Some of you would like to see the ‘Canes lose as you’re looking for any reason to get rid of Al Golden and staff, but it’s not in my DNA. I hate losing! Always have and always will.

Sep 11,2015;Boca Raton, FL, USA; University of Miami Hurricane quarterback Brad Kaaya rolls out during the fourth quarter of the team

Year after year, the ‘Canes have disappointed, and though I have some of my own thoughts on what the University of Miami needs to do to get this team back on track (which I won’t share in this particular post), I still want to see Miami win at all cost.

The idea that a possible recruit may be sitting in those stands or watching on television, looking for any reason to stay at home and play for Miami (as opposed to traveling up north to Tallahassee or Gainesville), and a Miami win could be the deal tipper, I’d obviously like to see the ‘Canes make it happen.

Still, a lot of people may say three things: 1) recruits at this point don’t matter as Golden doesn’t know how to coach them up or 2) FSU has already beaten us year after year in recruiting so it really doesn’t matter or 3) once Golden is fired the recruits will de-commit any way. This may be all true, but I’d rather always attempt to build for the future than see no progress at all.

Lastly, we’re undefeated in ACC play (obviously because we haven’t played any in-conference games). Stupid statement? Maybe to some. I personally saw a lot of problems with Miami in their wins against: Bethune-Cookman, FAU and Nebraska. And, I saw a lot worse in our loss to Cincy. So there’s not much to be optimistic about at this point in time. But, if Miami can find a way to stage the huge upset in Tallahassee, there’s no reason they couldn’t beat any other ACC team, including Clemson.

Sure, a win vs. FSU could be setting us up for more future disappointment, but then, that takes me back to my first point – I’d still rather see UM beat FSU in any circumstance.

Sep 19, 2015; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes defensive back Corn Elder (29) is unable to make a catch intended for Nebraska Cornhuskers tight end Cethan Carter (11) during the second half at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

FSU is currently a 9.5-point favorite against the ‘Canes, according to betfirm.com. And, they’re ranked #8 in the country by the USA Today Coaches Poll.

Again, most would think the ‘Canes stand no chance against the Seminoles. And, they’re probably right. The way Miami has performed thus far, the game being in Tallahassee, their crowd, their colors and their ear-piercing, “War Chant” looping over-and-over like an out-of-tune, farm rooster on crack. Yep, doesn’t look good.

Quite honestly, I could probably sit here and write out way more points for us losing than winning this game like: Miami is ranked 79th in points allowed per game and Florida State is ranked 7th in points allowed per game. And, Miami is ranked 76th in yards allowed per game and Florida State is ranked 20th in yards allowed per game. And, Miami has the less proven coach in Al Golden and Florida State has a proven coach in Jimbo Fisher. And on and on and on…

However, I still think the outcome will be a lot closer than most can imagine. Call me a serial optimist, a glass half-full-kind-of-a-guy, or even a delusional narcissist who needs to be institutionalized.

Whatever you may think, I have my reasons. And, I’d like to share them with you:

  • Florida State has lost more key contributors and leaders. We’ve lost ballers, but FSU has lost more. With that said, 11 FSU players were drafted in the 2015 NFL Draft – that’s the amount of players a team is allowed to field during a game! And, let’s also not forget the players who left and/or graduated and are now trying their luck in the NFL. Though the ‘Noles are notorious for reloading (and probably better at it currently than Miami), they definitely took an enormous hit this past year.
  • Losing Jameis Winston. I left this one as its own point because no player is as important as the quarterback. Especially, a quarterback who had led their team to a 26-1 record, won a Heisman Trophy and has earned numerous accolades – pretty hard to replace that kind of efficiency. And though FSU is 4 games into this season, it looks like they miss him dearly. Yes, Tallahassee now has Everett Golson, but in my humble opinion, he’s not as good as Brad Kaaya.
  • This leads me to my next point … the Hurricanes’ quarterback, Brad Kaaya is more talented than Everett Golson. Though at this point, Kaaya and Golson are pretty much neck and neck in passer rating and completion percentage, Kaaya has been let lose way more than Golson. He has thrown for 1,094 yards this season, while Golson has thrown for 786 yards. He may be young, but Kaaya has proven to be a stud, especially if the offensive line can give him some time (which could be a negative point as the offensive line played poorly against Cincinnati). But, I’m hoping Golden will make adjustments to the O-line and regardless, Kaaya should get better game to game. As you probably know, last year he was thrown to the wolves (so to speak), but Kaaya answered by being named, 2014 ACC Rookie of the Year, throwing for 3,198 yards and 26 touchdowns. In fact, Kaaya out-performed Winston in their last meeting (Kaaya – 70.1 QBR; Winston – 54.7 QBR). Big players make big-time plays in big-time games. Kaaya to me is a big-time player.
  • Kaaya will be throwing to a slew of talented targets. As the Seminoles are notorious for having a lot of speed and top-notch playmakers at the receiver position, including: Travis Rudolph, Kermit Whitfield and Bobo Wilson. Miami can handle their own and in my opinion, have equal (if not, better) talent at the position, especially with Braxton Berrios and Stacy Coley hopefully finding the field, finally. And, both Rashawn Scott and Herb Waters have more yards receiving than any FSU receiver thus far.
  • Hey Dalvin Cook, meet Joseph Yearby… Cook is a beast and it’s quite obvious. And, with the way Miami’s defense has played against the run, this point feels flawed. Nevertheless, Cook’s high school teammate, Yearby has quietly been nearly as efficient. Yearby, has 424 yards and 4 touchdowns rushing, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. And, has 111 yards and 1 touchdown receiving. Cook has 570 yards and 6 touchdowns rushing, averaging 8.6 yards per carry. But, he only has 24 yards receiving. Also, Mark Walton has been a better 1, 2 punch (getting 5 rushing touchdowns) than the Seminoles’ Mario Pender (who’s now injured). And, during FSU’s game against Wake Forest, Cook hurt his hamstring and may not be 100 percent against Miami.
  • “Ball hawks” in Miami’s secondary. Though the ‘Canes have let teams pass on them, Miami destroys Florida State in interceptions. The Hurricanes have 8 interceptions and the Seminoles have only 3 interceptions on the season. And, those 3 interceptions from FSU resulted in no yards after the pick. If Miami can find a way to get Golson uncomfortable, the ‘Canes could possibly force some needed turnovers.

I don’t like the Seminoles way more than I like the idea of throwing in the towel

  • The eye-test. Miami hasn’t looked too good, but neither has Florida State. However, UM at their best looked better than FSU’s best. When the ‘Canes were on a roll against Nebraska, it looked way better than the ‘Noles have been all year. Then, Miami got soft and Nebraska came storming back. Though the ‘Noles have handled their business and the ‘Canes didn’t, they’ve both been playing fairly weak opponents. With those weak opponents, FSU has averaged 32.75 points per game and Miami has averaged 37 points per game.
  • History repeating itself. Last time FSU went on to beat Miami 5-straight times in a row, Miami won the sixth go-around. Okay, I admit it, this one’s a big stretch. But, from 1995 – 1999 (5 seasons), FSU beat UM every year. Then, in 2000, Miami won, ending the streak. Well, from 2010 – 2014 (5 seasons) FSU has once again defeated UM continuously. It’s the sixth year, 2015…so?
  • It’s a rivalry game. With rivalry games, especially from the same state, anything can happen. Most of these players have played football alongside one another since Pop-Warner. The competitive level should be at an all-time high. I believe every player will turn up their play on both teams. When a game comes with such history and tradition, as does a Miami-FSU game, all rules go out the window.
  • Al Golden’s last stand. Like “Custer’s Last Stand”, Golden’s career most likely will be dead without a signature win (and he may be gone regardless). When it comes to the ‘Canes, big wins are a must and quite bluntly, expected. And, so too are championships. Golden is still in search for his, and as of now Miami’s Head Coach is 0-4 against the Seminoles. Can Golden go out with a bang?
  • Almost had them last year. We should’ve, could’ve, would’ve, excuse after excuse, beat the ‘Noles last year, but seem to always fall just short. In the end, a loss is a loss. Call it bad fortune. Call it luck. Call it being out-played. Call it FSU destiny. Call it Miami’s bad coaching. Call it whatever you’d like. Nevertheless, despite being the underdogs, the Miami Hurricanes looked more physical and out-played Florida State up until the latter part of the second half. But, that’s why we love football. It’s never over till it’s over. Just like this UM-FSU series.

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