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AP Top 25 prediction: How much will Miami benefit from losses by Oregon and Ohio State?

The Hurricanes are ready to sneak into the top 5
ByCorey Long
Sep 10, 2026; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA;  Miami Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah (10) reacts in the second half against the Florida A&M Rattlers at Hard Rock Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Sep 10, 2026; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah (10) reacts in the second half against the Florida A&M Rattlers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Miami Hurricanes did what they were expected to do against a team in a game that there was no reason to schedule. But the Hurricanes were not going to offer up much drama this week. That was supposed to come from Austin, where Texas hosted Ohio State, and it delivered a crazy comeback that will see a new team at the top.

And then there was Oregon...do we need any more proof that Dan Lanning isn't that guy? And he's definitely not on the level of Mario Cristobal. Lanning was handed a sports car and has officially crashed it into a building. We've got some moves to make in the Top 25.

Miami vs. Notre Dame is officially a top-5 matchup if things hold

1. Texas Longhorns, 24-23 win over Ohio State
2. Georgia Bulldogs, 70-20 win over Western Kentucky
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 52-0 win over Rice
4. Indiana Hoosiers, 55-0 win over Howard
5. Miami Hurricanes, 77-7 win over Florida A&M

As you can see, we've got a new No. 1, and I think it's fair that the Longhorns jump Georgia and Notre Dame because both the Bulldogs and Irish decided to have walkover wins. If nothing else, this top five tells me that maybe there should be some scheduling guidelines if nothing else. It is what it is, but seeing a combined score of 254-27 in the wins by Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana and Miami is a little extreme.

Ohio State blew a 20-point lead, so the Buckeye should fall

6. Ohio State Buckeyes, 24-23 loss to Texas
7. LSU Tigers, 45-14 win over Louisiana Tech
8. Texas A&M Aggies, 48-20 win over Arizona State
9. Ole Miss Rebels, 41-9 win over Charlotte
10: Alabama Crimson Tide, 45-17 win over Kentucky

There's a chance that Ohio State stays in the top five, but it really doesn't matter too much because, as long as the Buckeyes win 10 games, they will be in the playoffs. The glut of SEC teams behind Ohio State is confusing because who knows if these guys are ranked based on reputation or legitimacy. We'll see soon enough. I did move Texas A&M ahead of Ole Miss on the strength of a good win against a decent Power 4 team. The Aggies should be rewarded for putting a team with a real pulse on the non-conference schedule.

It's possible that the final CFP at-large team could be in this group

11. USC Trojans, 49-30 win over Louisiana
12. Texas Tech Red Raiders, 35-24 win over Oregon State
13. BYU Cougars, 28-17 win over Arizona
14. SMU Mustangs, 56-10 win over UC-Davis
15. Tennessee Volunteers, 45-24 win over Georgia Tech?
16. Penn State Nittany Lions, 27-9 win over Temple
17. Utah Utes., 43-3 win over Arkansas
18. Washington Huskies, 16-14 win over Utah State

If you're wondering how far Oregon and Oklahoma are going to fall, well, I doubt either team will be in the top 20 and definitely not ahead of this group. All eight of these teams feel pretty interchangeable, but I think the Trojans benefit the most from the two teams dropping out of the top 15. Call it the poll's Big Ten/SEC bias I guess, but who would've thought USC would be the higher ranked team when it faces Oregon in two weeks?

Both SMU and BYU face Notre Dame this year, and it's certainly possible that one of those two teams can pull off the upset and sneak into the playoffs. The Mustangs and Cougars are worth tracking.

Michigan is back after a one-week absence, but where's Oregon?

19. Michigan Wolverines, 17-10 win over Oklahoma
20. Iowa Hawkeyes, 16-13 win over Iowa State
21. Houston Cougars, 77-6 win over Southern
22. Oklahoma Sooners, 17-10 loss to Michigan
23. Missouri Tigers, 38-21 win over Kansas
24. Louisville Cardinals, 59-13 win over Villanova
25. Virginia Cavaliers, 59-3 win over Norfolk State

Yes, I couldn't keep Oregon as a top-25 team in good conscience. The Ducks were destroyed by a Oklahoma State team that lost 21 out of its past 22 games and 12 straight, including multiple losses to Tulsa! If Oregon stays in the top 25, what are we doing?

Michigan, however, jumps back in the top 20 because I think this is who the Wolverines are going to be this season — a grind-it-out team with a very good defense and a quarterback that will win more games with his legs than his arm. Yes, Michigan should've lost last week, but it was credited as a win. Like Cristobal says, it isn't a beauty pageant. Oklahoma sticks around, but the Sooners aren't a playoff team. Not with that offense and lack of running game. 

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