CBS Sports’ betting model put a massive spotlight on Sunday night’s opener at Hard Rock. It says Notre Dame’s postseason chances could hinge on what happens against Miami. In its latest College Football Playoff “power rankings,” the Inside the Lines team notes that while both the Irish and Hurricanes return similar production and break in new starting quarterbacks, the stakes skew heavier for Notre Dame because they don't play in a conference.
Their simulations show a huge swing. If Notre Dame beats Miami, the Irish have about a 78% chance to make the CFP, but if they lose, that number plummets to about 28%. That’s a 50-point movement off a single result.
The CBS team slots Notre Dame among the model’s top teams by neutral-field power, but the Irish’s independence is also why the opener carries extra weight. They don’t have a conference title game as a potential safety net. Not having the extra game is simply just an opportunity that Miami has and Notre Dame doesn't. UM can afford to lose to a top-10 opponent at home because they can pick up quality wins on the back end. This isn't to say that Notre Dame has an easy schedule, it's just notable because the projections skew the Irish's chances because of it.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Miami Hurricanes have met 27 times on the football field, with Notre Dame holding a 17–8–1 series advantage (Notre Dame has one vacated win). The rivalry began in 1955, but soared in intensity during the 1970s and 1980s before being paused after 1990.
Notre Dame enters the season ranked No. 6 in the AP poll, with No. 10 Miami on the other sideline in ABC’s standalone Sunday window (7:30 p.m. ET). CJ Carr is making his first start in college and Carson Beck will be making his debut with Miami.