The No. 10 Miami Hurricanes welcome in the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish for a week 1 clash that has plenty of playoff implications even with it being the opener. Lots of pundits are taking the conservative route by picking Notre Dame. Even with a QB making his first start for the Irish — CJ Carr — it seems like the media needs to see "it" from the Hurricanes if they are going to pick them.
Well, that's not the case for CFB analyst Josh Pate who, on his college football show, made the prediction that the Miami Hurricanes will win the Sunday night standalone matchup at home. A big part of his reasoning has to do with the run games of both teams. While it may seem like a guarantee that ND will have its way against Miami in that department, Pate pumps the brakes on that idea.
"The Notre Dame run game against Miami's run defense is the most important single facet of this game. I have implicit trust in Notre Dame's offensive line... I think they can run the ball on almost anyone. Can they run the ball on anyone, though?"Josh Pate
Pate points at the Irish's rushing numbers against top-10 teams. Quick note before the stat reveal: this is from the show's estimations and rankings, so it did not include Indiana, which Pate does acknowledge hurts Notre Dame in the stat. Against Penn State, Georgia and Ohio State they averaged 3.1 yards per carry (But, they did rank top five in rushes of 30-plus yards last year).
Pate suggests that explosive runs are a bit tougher to forecast — or rather lean on — when making a prediction. So, it opens the door for him to ask if Carr will be able to throw the ball against Miami. Now, he must trust that Miami has truly overhauled the secondary and that they can get enough pressure on the young QB. Pate gives props to ND's WR group, but he does think that Miami has enough portal add to help the defense. Although, he mainly relies on the fact that they might be able to get some pressure with a defense that ranked top-20 in sacks last year.
For his final point, Pate singles out one player for the Hurricanes that could be the difference maker: RB Mark Fletcher. Becuase Miami is replacing its top six pass-catchers, and also brings in a new QB, Fletcher, Jordan Lyle and the offensive line are the "real, real, real story" according to Pate. He believes that how Fletcher plays will go the furthest in determining Miami's fate.
"That's the name [Mark Fletcher] at the end of the night when they put up the fancy graphics they have that could be the one that really, really showed out for Miami"Josh Pate