In a new breakdown of the 12-team College Football Playoff field, ESPN's Bill Connelly gives Miami a 1.7% chance to win the national title based on his SP+ model, slotting the Hurricanes as the No. 8 favorite out of 12 teams. Miami opens on the road at No. 7 Texas A&M on Dec. 20 in the first round.
Why Miami can win national title
"Football is an efficiency game. If you're winning more plays than your opponent, you can win any game you play, and few win more plays than Mario Cristobal's Hurricanes."Bill Connelly
Connelly's case for Miami starts with something Mario Cristobal has preached since he arrived: down-after-down efficiency. SP+ has the Hurricanes 10th nationally in offensive success rate at 49.6% and eighth on defense at 34.5%. Indiana and Ohio State are the only other teams that rank in the top 10 on both sides in that stat, which basically measures how often you stay on schedule and "win" each play.
In 2024, Miami finished No. 1 in offensive SP+ with Cam Ward at quarterback, but a suspect defense ranked 52nd and gave up 37.3 points per game in three losses. They even allowed 30 or more in four wins. This year the offense stepped back to 16th in SP+, yet the Hurricanes still average 34.1 points per game while the defense has jumped into elite territory, giving up just 13.8 points per game over a 10-2 season.
Connelly credits first-year defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, a true breakout year from star defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr. and a wave of transfer hits. Linebacker Mohamed Toure leads the team in tackles and brings energy in the middle. In the secondary, safeties Jakobe Thomas and Zechariah Poyser plus corners Keionte Scott and Xavier Lucas have turned the back end into a strength instead of a weekly question mark.
On offense, Miami may no longer needs to win shootouts to survive, but the scoring unit has been great as well. Carson Beck has thrown for 3,072 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on 74.7% completions and 8.7 yards per attempt. Malachi Toney has emerged as the clear No. 1 target with 970 receiving yards and seven scores, while Mark Fletcher Jr. powers a ground game that has found the end zone 23 times.
Why Miami won't win a national title
So why does ESPN still see such a small path to winning it all? Turnovers and late-game management. Connelly points out that in Miami's two losses, the Hurricanes had as many turnovers as 20-yard gains, six of each. Beck threw six interceptions across those games while averaging just 10.7 yards per completion. That is a nightmare combo.
"Why they won't: Individual games are decided by big plays and turnovers (and close-and-late situations)."Bill Connelly
The other question is Cristobal in the clutch. Miami is 2-2 in one-score games this season. At Louisville, the Hurricanes played for a field goal late while trailing by three and never found the end zone. At SMU, they had 25 seconds and a timeout at the end of regulation in a tie game, but chose to kneel out the clock and go to overtime, then lost anyway. Those are the types of decisions that get magnified if they are wrong.
These are just projections for now. Texas A&M and Miami will be able to settle their first round matchup on the field at College Station on Saturday.