The CFP initial rankings will drop in a few short hours, and from this point on, it's the only system of rankings that truly matters. While the Miami Hurricanes are No. 1 in the AP Poll and the Coaches Poll, that won't be the deciding factor for the committee.
But there is a question about what the committee will look for and how consistent they will be over the course of the next six weeks. And at what point does ESPN start its hijacking process and start throwing out ridiculous phrases like "the 12 best teams or the 12 most deserving teams"? I could write a book on why this committee is an awful idea, but that will wait for another day. Here are my predictions for the initial CFP rankings:
The top 4 teams in the CFP
1. Miami (8-0)
2. Georgia (7-1)
3. UCLA (8-0)
4. Utah (8-0)
Both the Miami vs. Georgia and UCLA vs. Utah, Notre Dame, and BYU debates should be quite interesting. The general predictions seem to slightly favor the Hurricanes over the Bulldogs, but it's going to be close. It might come down to whether the committee sees Florida as a quality opponent for Georgia and how much they weigh Miami's win over Wake Forest.
There isn't a path I see for Notre Dame to make the initial top four, and there's a very good likelihood the Irish will be behind BYU when the numbers are released Tuesday night. UCLA is in line for a boost. I think their wins are going to be weighed nicely. None of the four teams have a ton of wins against ranked opponents, not even mighty Georgia, who has played the bottom third of the SEC through the first nine weeks with a road win over Alabama sprinkled in.
The rest of the top 10 should shake down like this
5. BYU (7-1)
6. Notre Dame (7-1)
7. Indiana (8-1)
8. Kentucky (7-1)
9. Texas (6-2)
10. Alabama (6-2)
I explained earlier why I think Indiana is a team that will take a little dip in the first rankings. The body of work is good, not great, and the amount of close calls is going to be a demerit against the Hoosiers. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be shocked if Kentucky jumps them.
Texas is the most intriguing team in this group because the Longhorns have an excellent non-conference win and two very good in-conference wins against Ole Miss and Tennessee. Both of the losses weren't ideal, but they were three-point games, so let's see how much the committee values that strength of schedule from the Longhorns.
Here's the CFP bubble for the week
11. Ole Miss (6-2)
12. Ohio State (6-2)
13. LSU (6-2)
14. Texas Tech (6-2)
15. Tennessee (6-2)
16. USC (6-2)
17. Houston (6-2)
18. Wake Forest (7-1)
21. New Mexico (7-1)*
New Mexico, which is in a tougher conference than Boise State and has a very good win over North Dakota State, gets the nod as the G6 representative over the Broncos for now. The rest of these teams are going to need to do some work to break into the bracket. The good news is that most of these teams will have opportunities to get a huge win over a ranked opponent in November. It's my belief that Wake Forest isn't going to get any respect from the committee, but I'd love to be surprised.
So if the season ended today, our 12-team bracket would be:
First Round
No. 12 New Mexico at No. 5 BYU
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Notre Dame
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Kentucky
Quarterfinals
Winner of New Mexico/BYU vs. No. 1 Miami (Cotton Bowl)
Winner of Alabama/Indiana vs. No. 2 Georgia (Peach Bowl)
Winner of Ole Miss/Notre Dame vs. No. 3 UCLA (Rose Bowl)
Winner of Texas/Kentucky vs. No. 4 Utah (Fiesta Bowl)
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