Miami football now projected for underwhelming bowl game after loss to SMU

Miami's overtime loss at SMU on Nov. 1 didn't just hurt the Hurricanes' ranking in the AP Poll — it reshaped their entire postseason outlook. In updated Week 11 projections, On3 placed Miami in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl against Tennessee on Dec. 27 in Jacksonville, a solid but second-tier ACC-SEC tie-in that falls short of the CFP trajectory Miami flirted with before their recent loss in Dallas. 

The Bowl projections were done by On3's Brett McMurphy who also included his CFP predictions.

ESPN's bowl forecast also slotted Miami in an underwhelming position, with one analyst sending the Hurricanes to the Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Cincinnati and the other to the Holiday Bowl vs. Washington.

Miami closes with Syracuse, NC State, at Virginia Tech and at Pitt, a run that offers the Hurricanes plenty of chances to add wins and get to 10-2. The committee's first rankings arrive Tuesday night, but most projections now cast Miami as more likely to be one of the first teams left out of the CFP, rather than competing for the sport's highest prize

First Round (Dec. 19-20)

• No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia
• No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Ole Miss
• No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Texas Tech
• No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Louisville

Quarterfinals (Dec. 31-Jan. 1)

• Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1, 2026): No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 7 Louisville
• Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31): No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
• Rose Bowl (Jan. 1, 2026): No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Ole Miss
• Orange Bowl (Jan. 1, 2026): No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Georgia

Semifinals (Jan. 8)

• Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Alabama
• Peach Bowl: No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 3 Indiana

CFP National Championship Game (Jan. 19)

• No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Texas A&M (Texas A&M winner)