Miami moved up three spots to seventh in the ESPN Football Power Index after a 38-7 win at Pittsburgh on Saturday. The three-spot move came after Miami moved up one spot following its 34-17 win at Virginia Tech last week.
Miami is projected with a 10.3 percent chance to earn a College Football Playoff berth by the ESPN FPI. That is the 16th-best chance to make the CFP. Duke and Virginia will play in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday. The only chance for Miami to earn a CFP berth is as an at-large team.
Miami is 14th in the ESPN FPI strength of record, has the 44th strength of schedule and is sixth in both game control and average in gain-gameme win probability. Miami has been projected to win at every point of its last four games by ESPN analytics.
The Hurricanes are seventh in the ESPN FPI overall efficiency, 20th in offensive efficiency, sixth in defensive efficiency and 71st in special teams efficiency. ESPN SP+ has Miami ninth overall, 18th in offensive efficiency, 10th in defensive efficiency and 13th in special teams efficiency.
NEW: Updated ESPN FPI after week 14 of the College Football season📈📉https://t.co/MJ37mYyYX5 pic.twitter.com/IIZufDwfQq
— On3 (@On3sports) November 30, 2025
Explaining SP+
Bill Connelly, who created SP+ for Football Outsiders in 2008, stated, "SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing." In theory, Miami being seventh in the ESPN FPI should project them as good enough to host a first-round CFP game. Being ninth in SP+ should have Miami comfortably in the CFP.
Miami is ranked higher in the ESPN FPI, SP+ and multiple other metrics than it is in the national polls and the CFP rankings. Subjective opinions are hindering Miami and project to keep the Hurricanes from earning a CFP berth.
The metrics work in Miami's favor. Miami has to hope the CFP committee re-examines the numbers in the ESPN FPI, SP+ and other metrics. By virtually every metric measure Miami should earn a CFP berth. Miami has to hope as the worldwide leader, the ESPN metrics carry enough weight.