Despite upset home losses to California and Florida State in January, Miami is just inside the NCAA Tournament bubble in the first 2026 ESPN bracketology published on Tuesday. Joe Lunardi of ESPN has Miami as an 11 seed, which would make the Hurricanes one of the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament field.
Lunardi projects Miami to play sixth-seeded Arkansas in the first round of the South Regional in Oklahoma City. Arkansas beat Miami 76-73 in the 2025 ACC/SEC Challenge. Miami has an entirely new coaching staff and roster since losing to Arkansas in 2025.
The winner of Arkansas and Miami would play either third-seeded Nebraska and 14th seed Portland State in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Neither Nebraska nor Portland State has ever won a game in the NCAA Tournament.
Miami has not played in the NCAA Tournament since reaching the only Final Four in program history in 2023. The Hurricanes advanced to the first Regional Final in program history in 2022. Miami was the only program nationally with consecutive regional final appearances in 2022 and 2023.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 3, 2026
Other projected teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament South Regional
On the Miami half of the bracket, Houston is the projected as the second seed. Miami beat Houston 89-75 in the 2023 Midwest Regional Semifinal on its way to the Final Four. Texas A&M is the projected second-round game for Houston as the seventh seed.
On the other half of the South bracket, Lunardi projects Connecticut as the top seed with fourth-seeded BYU or fifth-seed Alabama as the most likely opponent for the Huskies in the Regional Semifinal. Connecticut beat Miami 72-59 in the 2023 Final Four.
Undefeated Miami (Ohio) and Miami are the last two teams to receive byes through to the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Lunardi projected 11th seeds Ohio State and Texas and San Diego State and USC to play in the First Four in Dayton.