The Miami Hurricanes are a massive road favorite against Clemson and, if history is any indication, that bodes very well for the visitors.
Clemson has been a double-digit underdog under Dabo Swinney on just a handful of occasions, five times previously, according to On3's Brett McMurphy, and each of those the Tigers have lost.
Clemson is 16½-point home underdog to Miami, the biggest underdog role in Dabo Swinney’s 19-year coaching career. It’s also only the 6th time in his 245 games, Tigers are a double-digit underdog. Clemson lost all 5 games as a double-digit dog
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) September 30, 2026
In four of those five games, Clemson lost by double digits and in three of them the Tigers failed to cover the spread:
2012: Clemson (+14.5) at Florida State (lost 49-37)
2014: Clemson (+14.5) at Florida State (lost 23-17)
2024: Clemson (+10.5) vs. Georgia in Atlanta (lost 34-3)
2024: Clemson (+13.5) at Texas (lost 38-24)
2026: Clemson (+10.5) at LSU (lost 51-10)
Look at the 10-year gap between the Tigers being a substantial underdog. That second Florida State game was when Swinney finally decided to let Deshaun Watson play over Cole Stoudt and Clemson didn't look back for the next decade. But since that last run of top quarterbacks came through Death Valley, things have gone downhill. And Miami has caught Clemson on that downswing.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Clemson has the grit, but not the talent to compete with Miami
I probably respect Swinney's coaching job this season as much as any year he's been with Clemson. He is trying to piece together a pretty unremarkable roster to be competitive week after week. When the Tigers got smashed by LSU in Week 1, Swinney was quick to say that it was just one game and that Clemson would get better.
The Tigers have gotten better . . .they still aren't good, but they are figuring out how to stay in games. Whether it was the second-half rally against North Carolina or the commitment to ball control on the road at Cal last weekend, this is a real 3-1 football team that Miami has to go on the road to play in what will be a very tough environment.
All that being said, the Hurricanes should roll. I don't care about the crowd. I don't care about the likelihood of rain. Miami is going to be more physical up front when the running game needs to take over. The playmakers on the perimeter will make things happen in space, and can Tait Reynolds throw for 50 yards against the Hurricanes secondary? He barely threw for 100 yards against Cal on a perfect night.
There is a reason that Miami is a 16.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Hurricanes are at least three scores better than the Tigers and that will play itself out in a rainy Death Valley.
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