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Miami No Longer ESPN Football Power Index ACC Favorite

Miami dropped slightly in the ESPN Football Power Index after its 24-21 loss to Louisville on Friday night.
ByAlan Rubenstein|
Oct 4, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal during the second half against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images
Oct 4, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal during the second half against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Miami fell one spot to ninth in the ESPN Football Power Index following its 24-21 loss to Louisville on Saturday. Georgia Tech is the new favorite to win the ACC at 33.8 percent after its 27-18 win at Duke on Saturday. Miami is now second with a 19.9 percent chance to win the ACC.

The Hurricanes plummeted after having a 56.6 percent chance to win the ACC last week. Virginia (15.4 percent), SMU (15.0), Louisville (9.0), Duke (4.9) and Pittsburgh (2.1) are the only other teams with a chance to win the ACC per the ESPN FPI.

Miami is projected to finish with 10.2 wins and 2.0 losses per the ESPN FPI simulations, a 26.2 percent chance to win the remainder of its games, 44.9 percent to make the College Football Playoff, 5.3 percent to reach the title game and 2.2 percent to win the championship.

Miami had a 29.6 percent chance to win out, 80.5 percent to earn a CFP berth, 16.3 percent to make the national championship game and 7.8 percent to win the title last week in the ESPN FPI projections. The loss to Louisville significantly decreased Miami's projections to win the ACC and in the CFP.

Miami is 12th in strength of record, has the 20th toughest strength of schedule, the 64 remaining SOS, is seventh in game control and fourth in average in-game win probability. Miami trailed for only 9:12 the entire season (all against Florida State) before the loss to Louisville on Friday.

Louisville scored a touchdown on its first drive, 7:05 into the game and led the rest of the game. The Cardinals are 30th nationally in game control and 35th in average in-game win probability. If spite of trailing 14-0 in the first quarter, Miami had an positive in-game win probablity for most of the first half versus Louisville.

Miami is 12th nationally in overall efficiency, 24th in offensive efficiency, 10th in defensive efficiency and 84th in special teams efficiency. The Hurricanes are currently 1-1 in the ACC which is seventh in the conference. Georgia Tech, SMU and Virginia remain the only teams without an ACC loss.

Miami plays at SMU on November 1 but does not play Georgia Tech or Virginia. Five teams with one ACC loss are ahead of Miami in the standings. Pittsburgh is the only one of those five teams remaining on Miami's schedule. Miami will need help to reach the 2025 ACC Championship Game.

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